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Geopolitics
Publications on geopolitical topics you shouldn't miss

04.09.2024

18.2 Minutes

IAF

IAF - Geopolitics publications

Explore a curated selection of insightful publications on pivotal geopolitical topics, now available for free download! From analyses of shifting global power dynamics to deep dives into regional conflicts, these resources are essential for anyone looking to stay informed on the issues shaping our world. Don't miss out on these expert perspectives and expand your understanding of global affairs.

When Globalisation Meets Geopolitics in the Semiconductor Supply Chain

When Globalisation Meets Geopolitics in the Semiconductor Supply Chain

The focus of this policy paper is the global semiconductor industry’s supply chain, which is used as a case study to shed light on broader issues, including globalisation and the relationship between states and markets.

Neighbourhood Perspectives: Russia's Interest in Afghanistan

Neighbourhood Perspectives: Russia's Interest in Afghanistan

Neighbourhood Perspectives is a paper series on Afghanistan written from the perspective of her neighbouring countries to bring together a mosaic of different perspectives and also highlight the different historic experiences of various actors. Mr. Khohlov wrote the second paper in this series and tackled it from the perspective of what is/was Russia's engagement with Afghanistan to create a better understanding of the multiple interests present in the region.

Neighbourhood Perspectives: Iran-Afghanistan Relations

Neighbourhood Perspectives: Iran-Afghanistan Relations

Afghanistan, as a pivotal eastern neighbour, is integral to Iran's strategic vision under its "Look East" policy. This policy initiative focuses on strengthening economic and energy ties with prominent East Asian nations, principally India and China, aiming to foster regional stability in Central and South Asia. However, Afghanistan's challenges, marked by ineffective nation-building, lack of inclusive governance, and persistent instability, have led to a spill over of conflict and insecurity, significantly impacting Iran and the broader region. Iran's foreign policy towards Afghanistan, over recent decades, has oscillated, shaped by its shifting tactical and strategic imperatives.
The paper series Neighbourhood perspectives is trying to document the voices and opinions from academics, experts and policy analysts from countries neighbouring Afghanistan. The paper from Iran is written by Bahram Salavati, Founder & CEO of Iran Migration Observatory (IMO).

Strategic Decoupling

Strategic Decoupling

The study by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) examines the continuing entanglement between the German and Russian despite Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. There were 1713 companies with Russian ultimate beneficial ownership in Germany at the end of 2022. The Russian corporate presence in Germany is highly concentrated in around 40 larger firms, which specialize in oil refining, natural gas supply and distribution, metal and plastic products manufacturing, glass production, and transport. Russia’s war upended European peace and security and intensified global power competition. The Kremlin overturned decades of accommodating German Ostpolitik as it chose to weaponize Germany and Europe’s decision to opt for Russian gas as a transition fuel for achieving green transformation. Russia’s most potent tool in this global rivalry has been state capture – the use of military or law enforcement coercion to weaponize state, oligarchic or private sector economic resources for achieving foreign policy goals. Decoupling and/or de-risking from the
corrosive impact of this state capture model is paramount for democratic Europe’s economic security.

China's Influence in Europe

China's Influence in Europe

This policy paper takes a look at the means that China uses to weaken the ability of individual states and thus the EU as a whole to act. At the same time, it evaluates various strategies used in dealing with economic or political coercion exerted by China. It is aimed at readers who follow China's multifaceted engagement from the perspective of academia. The selection of countries looks beyond Europe: the USA, Australia and Taiwan all have their own stories to tell with regard to influence from China. Policy recommendations provide suggestions on how the EU can behave in its greatest crisis.

China's Digital Influence In Africa

China's Digital Influence In Africa

Zambia and Zimbabwe inherited a raft of surveillance laws from the colonial governments that once governed those two countries, which have continued to be used for conducting surveillance activities, ostensibly for national security but in reality for consolidating political power. China's relationship with the two countries, along with its own ambitions to dominate the manufacture and supply of technologies globally, have created fertile ground for China to supply surveillance technologies to the southern African countries, which are comparatively cheaper than those from other parts of the world. Over the past decade, a number of media reports have chronicled the adoption and rollout of Chinese sourced technologies in the telecommunications industries of these two countries, although these have tended not to examine how the different layers of Chinese technologies may be used by the Zambian and Zimbabwean governments to carry out targeted and mass surveillance.
The use of Chinese technologies for surveillance purposes does not take place in a vacuum and both countries use legislation that enables the often-unjustifiable use of surveillance.

The Rise of China?

The Rise of China?

What is at stake for the West if a democratic Taiwan ceased to exist? This paper argues that Western democracies, especially Europe and Germany, need to address this question urgently to properly position themselves in the global political arena. Calling China out on false narratives and maintaining a “free and open Taiwan Strait” are only two of further policy options to counter the growing and dangerous Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region and well beyond. Defending Taiwan is a litmus test for whether the “rules-based international order” can sustain and is therefore part of Western democracies’ national interests.

Global Europe – Global Expectations

Global Europe – Global Expectations

Today, we are experiencing that the European Union and its model of democratic societies are losing their worldwide popularity. The growing global influence of actors with values, political systems, and worldviews that are diametrically opposing to those of the EU, as well as the renaissance of geopolitical blocs (as evidenced by the abstention of some states in the UN in condemning Russia's war of aggression), further reinforce this trend. In the new era of geopolitics, characterized by strategic rivalry between authoritarian states on the one hand and liberal democracies on the other, these are alarming signs. In order to prevail against authoritarian regimes, the liberal model of EU democratic societies must regain its attractiveness in the world.

Wir erleben heute, dass die Europäische Union und ihr Modell der demokratischen Gesellschaften weltweit an Attraktivität verlieren. Der wachsende globale Einfluss von Akteuren mit Werten, politischen Systemen und Weltanschauungen, die denen der EU diametral entgegengesetzt sind, sowie die Renaissance geopolitischer Blockbildungen (wie die Stimmenthaltung einiger Staaten in der UNO bei der Verurteilung des russischen Angriffskrieges zeigt) verstärken diese Entwicklung noch. In der neuen Ära der Geopolitik, die durch die strategische Rivalität zwischen autoritären Staaten auf der einen und liberalen Demokratien auf der anderen Seite gekennzeichnet ist, sind dies alarmierende Zeichen. Um sich gegen autoritäre Regime durchzusetzen, muss das liberale Modell der demokratischen Gesellschaften der EU in der Welt wieder an Attraktivität gewinnen.

Digital Policy in an Age of Global Systemic Rivalry

Digital Policy in an Age of Global Systemic Rivalry

Global considerations are gaining ever greater importance in German and European politics. To date, however, the digital space has only played a subordinate role in this. In the digital age, the sovereignty of Europe and of liberal democracies in general depends on a free, open, global internet coupled with access to technology and secure, diversified supply chains. Three examples are used to analyse where dependencies arise (in undersea cables, with regard to norms and standards and in the chips industry) and what the role of private actors is in international digital policy. (satellites from Elon Musk’s Starlink system, Huawei and China’s “Digital Silk Road”, Google and Apple as gatekeepers for apps on smartphones). The present analysis considers the relationships between various diffe- rent forms of dependency.

Managing the Rise of China: The case of India

Managing the Rise of China: The case of India

India faces a pivotal moment amid China's ascension as a global power. This paper explores India's challenge in balancing its interests while responding to China's economic, military, and political surge. Addressing border disputes, economic ties, and regional security, it offers strategies for India, emphasizing diplomacy, regional alliances, and economic leverage. Navigating this juncture requires India's adeptness in strategic diversification and alliances to safeguard its interests and promote global stability.

Subsea Infrastructure Western Indian Ocean

Subsea Infrastructure Western Indian Ocean

Connectivity and digitization are vital for Africa's growth. Undersea cables in the region are increasingly pivotal for the continent's development and international connections. Safeguarding this infrastructure is paramount for Africa's digital transformation and its global connectivity.

This analysis zeroes in on the undersea cables in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), their relevance to Africa's development, and the need for protective measures. It aims to map and discuss the infrastructure off the East African coast, covering countries from South Africa to Eritrea and the smaller African island nations in the WIO. While addressing both energy and data cable infrastructure, the primary focus lies on undersea data cable networks. Three main themes are explored: providing background and an overview of the undersea cables, discussing undersea cable networks and country-specific peculiarities of WIO coastal African states, and presenting regulatory measures, focusing on selected East African countries and regions as cooperation platforms for protection.

Beyond vulnerabilities due to physical influences on undersea cable environments, the increasing spread of information technology opens avenues for foreign influence. Cable networks become contested terrain susceptible to geopolitical manipulation, exemplified by China's technological diplomacy with a surveillance emphasis. As the primary financier, China poses risks to vulnerabilities of African nations seeking connectivity and digitization as developmental drivers, particularly if manipulation becomes militarized. Securing and cooperating in expanding these networks are essential to safeguard and promote African as well as global interests. The WIO cables serve not only African but also significant interests in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

Vietnam's East Sea Strategy

Vietnam's East Sea Strategy

This paper focuses on current territorial disputes in the East Sea between Vietnam and other actors and Vietnam's East Sea Strategy to handle the disputes and to protect its national interests.

Global Power Shifts

Global Power Shifts

This paper addresses the increasingly close relations between Russia and Iran, particularly since Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. The new power dynamic is a crucial element in Russia's strategic alignment with systemic partners to redefine the international world order.

Specifically, Iran's production and delivery of UAVs in support of Russia's war objectives in Ukraine have shifted the power balance from Iran's weaker position to an exchange now occurring on almost equal footing. This includes the delivery of Shahed drones and the establishment of a production facility in Russia, the supply of ammunition, and possibly medium-range and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles with a range of 300-700 km. Conversely, Russia supplies Iran with Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter aircraft and is negotiating the sale of the Russian S-400 air defense system. Additionally, reports indicate that Russia is delivering confiscated Western (NATO) weapons systems from Ukraine to Iran, which Iran then attempts to reverse-engineer, such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, or identify weaknesses to help Russia counter American and NATO weapons systems.

Given that Russia is on track to "outperform" European arms production by a wide margin, this collaboration is highly relevant. The analysis also explores the Russo-Iranian cooperation in space. Russia has already assisted Iran with the launch of remote sensing satellites (Khayyam) and discussed the transfer of further technologies for the planning and production of remote sensing satellites. In this way, Russia is helping Iran bridge significant gaps in its satellite capabilities. These satellites can be used for gathering intelligence, monitoring border regions, observing military activities, and detecting illegal activities such as illegal fishing, deforestation, and smuggling.

The paper outlines the complex relationships, considering developments since the Cold War, the conflict lines between Israel and Syria, Israel and ISIS, Israel and Russia, and Israel and Iran. Among other things, it highlights Russia's goal of becoming a maritime power—with the help of closer ties to Iran, India, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia—as a strategic element.

The Discreet Power of China's Technical Standards

The Discreet Power of China's Technical Standards

Technical standards have become a central object of power-political competition for technology. China's growing influence on international technical standards is meeting with increasing concern in the West. Its influence, especially in strategic new technologies, is increasing significantly. In addition, China's standardization system is state-centric, unlike the private-driven approaches in the United States and Europe. This enables China to closely link politico-strategic goals with standardization.

Taming the Digital Realm

Taming the Digital Realm

In this in-depth publication on global content moderation practices, we explore the challenges and implications of regulating online platforms. Several authors highlight the importance of considering local socio-political and cultural contexts when enforcing content moderation, while others examine the delicate balance between regulation, digital rights, and freedom of expression. By showcasing legislative attempts from Germany, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom, Sri Lanka, Africa, Latin America, and Taiwan, this publication aims to provide insight into how governments are responding to the digital realm where tons of information is created daily.

Examples of Civic Tech Communities-Governments Collaboration Around The World

Examples of Civic Tech Communities-Governments Collaboration Around The World

This publication showcases how governments and civic tech communities around the world can work together to build digital services and projects. It also offers policy recommendations on what governments can do to facilitate such collaboration. The examples presented cover a wide range of topics: fighting corruption, enhancing transparency in government procurement, land management, pandemic prevention, improving digital literacy of governments and communities, local democracy, citizen participation, and making a city more accessible for people with physical disabilities.

A new model for the globalization of the world of employment

A new model for the globalization of the world of employment

Two opposing trends characterize the global world of employment. In the global South, the supply of labor is increasing,
while the global North is confronted with a decline in the working population and a shortage of qualified workers.
Both developments have demographic causes. Many countries in the global South continue to have high birth rates. The
resulting population growth, combined with improved access
to education, is leading to a significant increase in the working
population. Despite comparatively high growth rates, very few
economies in the South are creating enough jobs to provide
all young jobseekers the prospect of an economically viable
and secure future. Typical consequences are social instability
and uncontrolled migration to the supposedly greener pastures in the North.
Conversely, the global North is struggling with the challenges
of low birth rates, ageing and in some cases even shrinking working population. The so-called baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964, are gradually retiring.
The number of young people now entering the labour market is insufficient to fill the jobs that the baby boomers are
vacating. The result is shortage of supply in skilled workers
in many sectors. For many companies, the lack of qualified
employees is becoming an existential threat. In macroeconomic terms, the shortage of skilled workers negatively impacts
growth and prosperity in the affected economies.
In real terms, the seemingly simple solution of migrating skilled labor from the South to the North to meet the growing
demand is now increasingly becoming a complicated affair.
After a decade of record immigration of refugees to the global
North, the willingness to take in more people has drastically
reduced. The fear of a supposed “over-foreignization” has driven the poll ratings of populist parties on the extreme right to
record highs.
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The Global Battle of Narratives

The Global Battle of Narratives

As the battle for influence intensifies globally, China's strategic maneuvers in Thailand's media landscape have become increasingly pronounced. This paper delves into the intricate web of narratives, examining how China's media infiltration affects democratic discourse and freedom of expression in Thailand.

A New Climate: The Impact of Russia's War on a Melting Arctic

A New Climate: The Impact of Russia's War on a Melting Arctic

The strategic importance of the Arctic is increasing dramatically, not least because of changing geopolitical realities due to climate change and a growing system competition. This also affects security dynamics in the Arctic. In addition to existing competition for access and influence in the region, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is also having an impact on regional geopolitics and cooperation in the Arctic. In particular, the relationship between Russia and China needs to be monitored.

Russia's Strategy in the Med

Russia's Strategy in the Med

NATO´s celebrating the 40th anniversary of Spain’s membership in the defense alliance at the Madrid summit; LVL and FNF joined forces to analyze the security threat in Europe´s south. This analysis paper gathers the insights on this key issue by experts in diplomacy, security, military operations, hybrid threats, cybersecurity and geopolitics.

Russian Media in the Balkans

Russian Media in the Balkans

The influence of Russian state-run foreign media on public opinion in Western democracies is now common knowledge – regardless of its political qualification. Well-documented analyses are available, e.g. from the USA, France and Germany. The European Parliament has repeatedly called for member states to adopt strategies against „hostile propaganda“ from Moscow.
The situation in the Balkan peninsula is completely different. Russian media material is most welcome here. The political elite, such as in the largest and most important Balkan country, Serbia, or in the Serbian half of Bosnia and Herzegovina, traditionally maintain close ties with Russia. Since the political elite – above all President Aleksandar Vučić – almost completely control the media landscape, media offerings from Russia are very welcome. Because Serbian printed and electronic media suffers from chronic underfunding, the free information offered by Russia gains even more importance.
At first glance, dealing with the Russian-Serbian media partnership is of little relevance, because the Balkans are not uncommonly relegated as the „backyard of Europe“. However, if you look at South-Eastern Europe from the angle of power politics and security policy, the subject becomes enormously important.

Russia's Information Warfare in the Middle East

Russia's Information Warfare in the Middle East

This policy paper provides an overview of Russian information
warfare in the Middle East. It includes a brief overview
of Russian information warfare methods and Russian foreign
policy in the Middle East. It then delves into Russian information
warfare in the Middle East, evaluates its effectiveness and
differentiates Russia’s strategy towards Israel and the Arab
states. The report ends with a list of recommendations that
any state and organization can adopt to fight disinformation
and Russian information warfare in particular. The paper focuses
on a very recent time frame, especially since the Russian
invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russian Media in the Balkans and their Role in the Agression against Ukraine

Russian Media in the Balkans and their Role in the Agression against Ukraine

The role of Russian media in the Balkans, especially the RT Balkan channel, continues to be insufficiently discussed within Western European societies. In his analysis, Dr. Thomas Brey highlights the destructive influence of Russian propaganda in the former Yugoslavian territories since February 24, 2022. The sophistication of Russia's unleashed hybrid warfare and the dissemination of divisive narratives in this context, which could plunge the people of the Western Balkans (e.g. in Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia) into new rifts without countermeasures, are specifically explained. To debate and analyse this matter with facts and insights, reading this publication is recommended.