Czech Republic
Czech Senate & Regional Election Dynamics: Negative Campaigns, Floods and Victory of Opposition
Elections for one-third of the Czech Senate were held in the first round on September 20-21, alongside the regional elections. The second round of Senate elections took place the following week, on September 27-28. Despite severe flooding that affected large parts of the Czech Republic in mid-September and prompted discussions about a possible postponement, the elections proceeded as scheduled.
In the second round of Senate elections, six candidates from the main opposition party, ANO, secured victories, marking the first time the party won elections to the upper chamber of parliament. The coalition member Mayors and Independents (STAN) also bolstered its position. Robert Šlachta, leader of the right-wing populist Přísaha (Oath) party, won a seat as well. Meanwhile, the governing ODS party suffered a significant setback, losing five seats, highlighting the declining popularity and weakened standing of the current government. In the first round, five senators surpassed the 50% threshold to secure their seats outright. Voter turnout was 17.54% (and it has remained similarly low over the long term). Just like four years ago, the ANO movement won regional elections in ten regions (out of 13). Voter turnout was just under 33%. Candidates from far right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) movement succeeded in twelve regions, gaining six more seats than they did four years ago.
Every two years, one-third of the Czech Senate's 81 seats are up for election, with senators serving six-year terms. Senators are elected through a two-round voting system in single-member districts. To run for the Senate, candidates must be endorsed by a registered political party or collect at least 1,000 signatures from voters in their district. There are no limits on the number of terms a senator can serve. The recent Senate elections were the second and final ones during the term of current Prime Minister Petr Fiala's government. In regional elections, representatives are elected every four years in 13 regions. These elections do not include Prague, where citizens elect their representatives to the City Council through municipal elections. Starting in 2026, regional, Senate, and municipal elections will be held at the end of the first week of October. This change, part of a constitutional amendment signed by the president in March, aims to prevent the elections from being moved closer to the summer.
Negative (anti)campaign prevailed
The pre-election campaign was notably intense. The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) coalition, along with the non-parliamentary right-wing parties Tricolour and Law, Respect, Expertise (PRO), based their regional campaign on opposition to the EU Migration Pact. They used controversial posters, including one featuring a Black man with a blood-stained shirt, a fierce expression, and a knife, accompanied by the text: "Shortcomings in healthcare won't be solved by 'imported' surgeons. Stop the EU migration pact." SPD has been losing support in polls, with voters shifting the former member of Renew Europe and main opposition ANO party, and to the right-wing alliance Oath and Motorists (Přísaha and Motoristé). To counteract this decline, SPD has adopted a highly confrontational campaign strategy. It is also notable for being the first party to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into its campaign efforts. Jiří Pospíšil, chairman of the TOP 09 party (currently in the government) in Prague, has filed a criminal complaint against the SPD campaign, alleging that it incites hatred, restricts rights and freedoms, and defames various groups. Experts argue that the poster's message about the migration pact is irrelevant to the issue of employee shortages. Another controversial poster depicted a woman with the message, "Government tolerance won’t protect me from those who don't adapt," further fueling polarization. SPD's campaign tactics are seen as a defensive measure to address its declining popularity. By targeting the ANO movement, which has attracted some of its voters, SPD aims to appeal to left-leaning voters who are particularly sensitive to perceived threats. Consequently, SPD is expected to continue its use of extreme messaging.
The Civic Democratic Party (ODS), a coalition member in the current government, also launched a negative campaign targeting key opposition figures, particularly Andrej Babiš and his party, ANO. Their campaign visuals, using ANO's traditional colors, included messages such as “ANO (YES in Czech, note of the author), it will get better, but only for Andrej” and depicted former Finance Minister Alena Schillerová as a “financial influencer” with a peacock. These ads were designed to mock ANO's promises and highlight alleged fiscal mismanagement under Babiš’s government. ODS had previously used similar tactics before the European Parliament elections, accusing Babiš and Dostálová of wanting to "give everything to Russia," which parodied ANO's nationalist messaging and drew criticism from President Petr Pavel. This illustrates the extent of political absurdity present in municipal and regional campaigns.
Negative campaigning is not new in the Czech Republic. Recently, SOCDEM (Social Democracy) ran a campaign against current PM Petr Fiala (ODS), depicting him as a devil. In the presidential elections, losing candidate Andrej Babiš campaigned against current president Petr Pavel, indirectly accusing him via billboards of potentially dragging the Czech Republic into war.
"Our goal is not only to win these elections but also to secure positions that will enable us to restore to the people what the anti-social government of Petr Fiala took from them," stated ANO leader Andrej Babiš at the campaign launch. As the main rival of ODS and the principal opposition party, ANO, like in previous regional elections, focused on a national narrative and their most prominent figures. The ANO movement launched a nationwide campaign, treating the regional elections as a referendum on Prime Minister Petr Fiala's government, much like it did during the European elections. They have invested heavily in building recognition for their national politicians, even though they lack similarly well-known figures at the local level. Aware of this, they prioritize media-friendly faces who represent opposition to the current government. Babiš also emphasized social media for campaigning. In the regional elections, Babiš closely monitored the performance of his potential coalition partners, as ANO is favored to win the next 2025 parliamentary elections according to polls.
Floods
In mid-September, widespread flooding severely impacted the Czech Republic, particularly in the Moravian-Silesian Region and northern parts of the Olomouc Region. This disaster shifted the focus of the elections. In the affected areas, the elections transitioned from being a 'referendum on the government'—as the far-right SPD had promoted—to a 'referendum on the competence of the current regional leaders.' Long-term surveys show that most voters make their decisions shortly before the polls open, making the last weekend and the week leading up to the elections crucial for campaigns. Politicians had to quickly adapt to this new challenge: gaining visibility during a crisis. The floods provided a significant opportunity for both regional and national politicians to highlight their efforts in managing the disaster's aftermath.
Financial Aspect of the Campaign
Senate campaigns are limited to a budget of two million crowns (around €80,000) for the first round. In contrast, regional elections allow for higher spending. The campaign budget for regional elections is seven million crowns (approximately €280,000) multiplied by the number of regions a party contests. The ANO movement, as the main opposition party, was in the strongest financial position, benefiting from substantial state subsidies due to its large number of mandates. Additionally, ANO received contributions for European Parliament election expenses and further support from individual party members.