Central Asia

Beyond the Silk Road

With the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom and CAPS Unlock our partners Central Asia Barometer (CAB) released a report on Central Asia’s Public Opinion of China and it's influence in the region. 

On October 24, 2024, the report was presented in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Titled "Beyond the Silk Road: Navigating the Complexities of Central Asia’s Public Opinion of China," the presentation delved into the shifting public sentiments across Central Asian nations toward China's growing influence. Supported by CAB, a non-profit institution dedicated to applied social research, the report drew significant attention from academics, policymakers, and representatives from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, who attended as invited guests. The Friedrich Naumann Foundation supported the report, reflecting its dedication to promoting open, data-driven discussions on Central Asia’s geopolitical choices. The foundation’s representatives, opening the event with remarks, emphasized the strategic significance of CAB's findings in a context where European and American institutions are increasingly stepping back from the region. With China’s role in Central Asia growing more prominent, the foundation underscored the need for transparency and informed decision-making in the region’s evolving political landscape.

Central Asia Barometer (CAB) has long played a vital role in mapping the region's social, economic, and political climate through rigorous public opinion surveys. Known for their adherence to international standards, CAB's research supports regional leaders and institutions in making data-informed decisions for the benefit of Central Asian citizens. Over the past decade, CAB has developed a robust approach to empirical studies, ensuring quality and consistency in its findings. This dedication has positioned the organization as a trusted voice on regional perspectives, bringing essential insights to discussions on foreign relations and national development.

The report, “Beyond the Silk Road,” emerged as a key contribution in understanding China’s expanding presence in Central Asia. Over fourteen waves of surveys conducted since 2017 in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, CAB researchers gathered extensive data on the attitudes and perceptions of local populations toward China. The report addresses the complex dynamics at play, from economic partnerships and infrastructure projects to political and cultural influences.

At the event, the authors of the report provided an in-depth analysis of their findings, highlighting the nuanced shifts in public opinion. As China deepens its influence in the region, questions of sovereignty, economic dependency, and cultural integration have become increasingly relevant. For example, while many Central Asians see Chinese investment as a catalyst for economic growth and infrastructure development, there remains an undercurrent of apprehension regarding potential “debt traps” and perceived threats to national autonomy. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, concerns over land ownership and the presence of Chinese workers in local industries have contributed to a more cautious view, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan generally exhibit more favorable attitudes, seeing China as an essential partner in economic progress.

The presentation attracted lively participation, as attendees engaged in a question-and-answer session with the authors. Discussions covered a range of topics, from the regional comparisons of favorability toward China to specific socio-economic factors shaping these views. Media and demographic influences, such as the role of social media and ethnicity, were noted as critical in shaping perceptions. For instance, younger respondents who actively use platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook tended to view Chinese technology and products more positively, in contrast to older generations who expressed concerns over sovereignty and cultural integrity.

A particularly thought-provoking aspect of the report was the comparison of China’s favorability with that of other major powers, such as Russia and the United States. While Russia traditionally holds a strong position across Central Asia, its favorability is gradually decreasing in countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This trend highlights a window of opportunity for China to strengthen its role, especially as local elites increasingly view China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a beneficial path to economic diversification. Yet, China’s expanding influence has not come without challenges; CAB’s findings indicate that public opinion remains highly variable and sensitive to national context.

In closing, “Beyond the Silk Road” delivers crucial insights for policymakers, local leaders, and international stakeholders. CAB’s data-driven research has shed light on the complex, multifaceted relationship between Central Asia and China, underscoring the importance of understanding public sentiment in shaping the region’s future. As Central Asian countries weigh the economic opportunities against the potential risks of dependency, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation’s support for this research stands as a commitment to fostering open dialogue and a balanced approach to international cooperation in Central Asia.

The full report is available at the following link.