DE

Geopolitics
Publications on geopolitical topics you shouldn't miss

IAF - Geopolitics publications

Explore a curated selection of insightful publications on pivotal geopolitical topics, now available for free download! From analyses of shifting global power dynamics to deep dives into regional conflicts, these resources are essential for anyone looking to stay informed on the issues shaping our world. Don't miss out on these expert perspectives and expand your understanding of global affairs.

Global Europe – Global Expectations

Global Europe – Global Expectations

Today, we are experiencing that the European Union and its model of democratic societies are losing their worldwide popularity. The growing global influence of actors with values, political systems, and worldviews that are diametrically opposing to those of the EU, as well as the renaissance of geopolitical blocs (as evidenced by the abstention of some states in the UN in condemning Russia's war of aggression), further reinforce this trend. In the new era of geopolitics, characterized by strategic rivalry between authoritarian states on the one hand and liberal democracies on the other, these are alarming signs. In order to prevail against authoritarian regimes, the liberal model of EU democratic societies must regain its attractiveness in the world.



Wir erleben heute, dass die Europäische Union und ihr Modell der demokratischen Gesellschaften weltweit an Attraktivität verlieren. Der wachsende globale Einfluss von Akteuren mit Werten, politischen Systemen und Weltanschauungen, die denen der EU diametral entgegengesetzt sind, sowie die Renaissance geopolitischer Blockbildungen (wie die Stimmenthaltung einiger Staaten in der UNO bei der Verurteilung des russischen Angriffskrieges zeigt) verstärken diese Entwicklung noch. In der neuen Ära der Geopolitik, die durch die strategische Rivalität zwischen autoritären Staaten auf der einen und liberalen Demokratien auf der anderen Seite gekennzeichnet ist, sind dies alarmierende Zeichen. Um sich gegen autoritäre Regime durchzusetzen, muss das liberale Modell der demokratischen Gesellschaften der EU in der Welt wieder an Attraktivität gewinnen.

More
Subsea Infrastructure Western Indian Ocean

Subsea Infrastructure Western Indian Ocean

Connectivity and digitization are vital for Africa's growth. Undersea cables in the region are increasingly pivotal for the continent's development and international connections. Safeguarding this infrastructure is paramount for Africa's digital transformation and its global connectivity.

This analysis zeroes in on the undersea cables in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), their relevance to Africa's development, and the need for protective measures. It aims to map and discuss the infrastructure off the East African coast, covering countries from South Africa to Eritrea and the smaller African island nations in the WIO. While addressing both energy and data cable infrastructure, the primary focus lies on undersea data cable networks. Three main themes are explored: providing background and an overview of the undersea cables, discussing undersea cable networks and country-specific peculiarities of WIO coastal African states, and presenting regulatory measures, focusing on selected East African countries and regions as cooperation platforms for protection.

Beyond vulnerabilities due to physical influences on undersea cable environments, the increasing spread of information technology opens avenues for foreign influence. Cable networks become contested terrain susceptible to geopolitical manipulation, exemplified by China's technological diplomacy with a surveillance emphasis. As the primary financier, China poses risks to vulnerabilities of African nations seeking connectivity and digitization as developmental drivers, particularly if manipulation becomes militarized. Securing and cooperating in expanding these networks are essential to safeguard and promote African as well as global interests. The WIO cables serve not only African but also significant interests in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

More
Global Power Shifts

Global Power Shifts

This paper addresses the increasingly close relations between Russia and Iran, particularly since Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. The new power dynamic is a crucial element in Russia's strategic alignment with systemic partners to redefine the international world order.

Specifically, Iran's production and delivery of UAVs in support of Russia's war objectives in Ukraine have shifted the power balance from Iran's weaker position to an exchange now occurring on almost equal footing. This includes the delivery of Shahed drones and the establishment of a production facility in Russia, the supply of ammunition, and possibly medium-range and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles with a range of 300-700 km. Conversely, Russia supplies Iran with Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter aircraft and is negotiating the sale of the Russian S-400 air defense system. Additionally, reports indicate that Russia is delivering confiscated Western (NATO) weapons systems from Ukraine to Iran, which Iran then attempts to reverse-engineer, such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, or identify weaknesses to help Russia counter American and NATO weapons systems.

Given that Russia is on track to "outperform" European arms production by a wide margin, this collaboration is highly relevant. The analysis also explores the Russo-Iranian cooperation in space. Russia has already assisted Iran with the launch of remote sensing satellites (Khayyam) and discussed the transfer of further technologies for the planning and production of remote sensing satellites. In this way, Russia is helping Iran bridge significant gaps in its satellite capabilities. These satellites can be used for gathering intelligence, monitoring border regions, observing military activities, and detecting illegal activities such as illegal fishing, deforestation, and smuggling.

The paper outlines the complex relationships, considering developments since the Cold War, the conflict lines between Israel and Syria, Israel and ISIS, Israel and Russia, and Israel and Iran. Among other things, it highlights Russia's goal of becoming a maritime power—with the help of closer ties to Iran, India, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia—as a strategic element.

More
A new model for the globalization of the world of employment

A new model for the globalization of the world of employment

Two opposing trends characterize the global world of employment. In the global South, the supply of labor is increasing,
while the global North is confronted with a decline in the working population and a shortage of qualified workers.
Both developments have demographic causes. Many countries in the global South continue to have high birth rates. The
resulting population growth, combined with improved access
to education, is leading to a significant increase in the working
population. Despite comparatively high growth rates, very few
economies in the South are creating enough jobs to provide
all young jobseekers the prospect of an economically viable
and secure future. Typical consequences are social instability
and uncontrolled migration to the supposedly greener pastures in the North.
Conversely, the global North is struggling with the challenges
of low birth rates, ageing and in some cases even shrinking working population. The so-called baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964, are gradually retiring.
The number of young people now entering the labour market is insufficient to fill the jobs that the baby boomers are
vacating. The result is shortage of supply in skilled workers
in many sectors. For many companies, the lack of qualified
employees is becoming an existential threat. In macroeconomic terms, the shortage of skilled workers negatively impacts
growth and prosperity in the affected economies.
In real terms, the seemingly simple solution of migrating skilled labor from the South to the North to meet the growing
demand is now increasingly becoming a complicated affair.
After a decade of record immigration of refugees to the global
North, the willingness to take in more people has drastically
reduced. The fear of a supposed “over-foreignization” has driven the poll ratings of populist parties on the extreme right to
record highs.
.

More