BRICS

BRICS - What are the key issues for 2025?

With the recent addition of Indonesia as a member and Nigeria as a partner, BRICS is underlining its strategy of expansion this year. Including the recently added partner states, the BRICS countries now account for 46% of global GDP and 55% of the world's population.

Highlights in 2024 were the “Putin Show” in October at the summit in Kazan, Russia, as well as the expansion round at the beginning of the year to include four new members from North and East Africa and the Arab region (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates).

With other countries around the world having already expressed their interest in membership, the economic and political importance of the association of states will continue to grow. The reasons for this are the continued admission of new members, new emerging tensions with the USA under President Trump and ongoing geopolitical conflicts involving BRICS countries, primarily all Russia's war in Ukraine. It will also be important to see what progress BRICS can make in terms of its substantive goals as a platform of the “Global South” and rival to the G7 under the Brazilian presidency.

We will briefly discuss these points below in our annual outlook 2025 for BRICS.

Brazilian presidency - What are the priorities?

The motto of the Brazilian BRICS presidency this year is: “Strengthening cooperation in the ‘Global South’ for more inclusive and sustainable governance” and thus fits in seamlessly with the priorities of Brazil's G20 presidency last year. The highlight of the BRICS summit is expected to take place in Rio de Janeiro in July.

Brazil is pursuing the following five goals with its presidency:

1. Facilitating trade and investment: Promoting economic integration through the development of efficient payment systems
2. Regulating artificial intelligence: promoting inclusive and responsible AI governance for development purposes
3. Tackling climate change: improving financing mechanisms to support global efforts in coordination with the COP30 climate summit (also taking place in Brazil in November)
4. Cooperation in the field of public health: strengthening cooperation projects between member countries with a focus on improving public health systems
5. Institutional development: strengthening the internal framework of BRICS to ensure effective governance and decision-making

At the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro last November, President Lula proved experienced negotiation skills by successfully getting the final communiqué passed unanimously despite major differences among the G20 countries. Moreover, presidential elections are due to be held in Brazil in 2026, where Lula is likely to seek re-election. In this respect, he will want to use the BRICS presidency (and COP30) as an opportunity to present himself as an assertive political leader on the international stage. However, he faces the challenge that the BRICS members are not a homogeneous group either: anti-Western states such as Russia, Iran and China are often at odds with states that see BRICS as an important additional platform for strengthening their national interests. Brazil belongs to the latter group, as the Brazilian presidency also explicitly states that BRICS “must be part of creating a better, more sustainable world”.

Brazil has handed over the baton for the G20 presidency in 2025 to South Africa, where the G20 summit will take place in November. The world is looking forward to meeting in the African founding member of BRICS, where a coalition government consisting of the progressive African National Congress (ANC) and the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA), among others, has been in power since May 2024 and has yet to find a common position on the country's geopolitical positioning.

Indonesia new BRICS member - start of further expansion in ASEAN?

The year was in its infancy and BRICS already had its 10th member country: Indonesia. On January 6, the Brazilian BRICS presidency announced that the Southeast Asian country with the fourth largest population in the world will be a BRICS member with immediate effect. The timing came as a surprise: Indonesia joined BRICS as a partner only last October at the summit in Kazan as one of 13 countries. This enables Indonesia to participate in committee meetings of the association of states, albeit without voting rights. Indonesia had already been offered membership at the penultimate BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023. Indonesia's then President Joko Widodo remained reluctant. However, his successor Prabowo Subianto, who has been in office since October 2024, accepted the invitation. Indonesia is by far the largest economy in Southeast Asia and yet another G20 country to join BRICS.

The Brazilian presidency justified Indonesia's admission with its “positive contribution to deepening cooperation in the Global South” and the shared goal of “reforming international institutions”. As Indonesia's largest trading partner, China will use the admission as an opportunity to further intensify bilateral economic and political relations and expand its influence in Southeast Asia. However, Indonesia is likely to see BRICS membership primarily as an expansion of its strategic options and national interests and not as a decision against the West, embodied also by continued efforts by the Island-state in seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In addition to Indonesia, three other ASEAN states – Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam – are lining up for BRICS membership after being offered partner status in Kazan. A key question will therefore be whether more of these countries succeed in achieving membership status this year and what this means for China's influence in the region and for the influence of BRICS as a whole in the “Global South”.

Nigeria as a new cornerstone of BRICS in Africa

On January 17, Nigeria has been admitted to the BRICS group as a partner country. This means that BRICS has now also arrived in West Africa. Nigeria is a strategically important addition to the group. With over 220 million inhabitants and a dynamic economy, Nigeria is not only Africa's most populous country, but also an enormously attractive market for trade and investment. Its wealth of resources, particularly in the areas of oil, gas and critical raw materials, is of great interest to energy-hungry BRICS members such as China and India.

By cooperating with BRICS, Nigeria hopes to gain investment in infrastructure projects and access to alternative sources of finance such as the BRICS-owned New Development Bank. The bank offers financing options that are less restrictive than the conditions of Western institutions such as the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank.

In addition, Nigeria's accession strengthens its geopolitical role as a leading economic power in sub-Saharan Africa and enables the country to have a stronger voice in global decision-making processes. The partnership also helps BRICS to further expand its presence and influence on the African continent and position itself globally as a counterweight to Western dominance.

Nigeria's inclusion in the BRICS group thus reflects a win-win situation: Nigeria benefits from investments, new markets and the opportunity to broaden its economy, while BRICS strengthens its global and regional influence and access to resources in Africa. With Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and South Africa, the three largest economies as well as the most populous countries in Africa are now BRICS members or partners. Algeria and Uganda are also already preparing to become members.

BRICS in conflict with the USA

Just before his inauguration, US President Trump warned that BRICS countries attempting to replace the dollar as a trading currency would face 100% tariffs on their trade with the United States. This threat was made against the backdrop of the BRICS countries' efforts to reduce their dependence on the dollar and promote alternative currencies in international trade. This makes clear the stance that Trump is taking towards the group of states. Russia and China have taken steps in the past to increase the use of national currencies and thus reduce the influence of the dollar. New partners, such as Nigeria, also have a strong interest in reducing the dominant role of the dollar in the oil business.

Remarkably, on his very first day in office, Trump falsely referred to Spain as a member of the BRICS group in front of journalists and threatened the country with high tariffs. However, Spain is neither a BRICS member nor an aspiring country, but a NATO ally and EU member.

Overall, Trump's statements show an aggressive attitude towards the BRICS countries and their efforts to create a multipolar world order. However, China remains the political and economic target number one. Equally important for the USA is the countries' position on Iran, which continues to be subject to severe sanctions. In the finance sector in particular, many companies face the decision of whether to give up access to the US market in favor of the Iranian market. Trumps threats of high tariffs underline the US determination to defend economic supremacy and aim at forcing other countries to take a clear stand on these conflicts.

"Settle now and STOP this ridiculous war! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE"

With these drastic words, Trump threatened high tariffs and further sanctions against Russia on January 22 if the war in Ukraine does not end quickly.

Russia uses the BRICS platform to mobilize international support and circumvent Western sanctions. President Vladimir Putin regularly emphasizes the importance of a multipolar world order and looks for allies within BRICS to counter Western influence - most recently with Iran with the comprehensive strategic partnership agreed in Moscow on 17 January, which includes military cooperation.

China, on the other hand, is trying to give the impression that it is trying to mediate peace in the Ukraine conflict. At the UN General Assembly last September, China promoted its “peace initiative” for Ukraine, with no reference to the territorial integrity of Ukraine or the withdrawal of Russian troops and is instead supported by Russia. This shows that China is not neutral as a peace mediator.

By contrast, India, Brazil and South Africa are pursuing a more neutral position and calling for diplomatic solutions. At the BRICS summit in Kazan, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the need for peaceful dialogue and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.

The approach within BRICS so far has been to prioritize a certain simultaneity of issues where consensus on all issues does not seem to be necessary. However, finding consensus within the group remains a challenge as divergent national interests and geopolitical alignments lead to divergent views. Due to the lack of neutrality and different interests, it is not expected that BRICS will contribute to a solution to resolve the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

Liberal responses of the West to BRICS

One of the core objectives of BRICS is to strategically expand into an ever larger platform for the “Global South”. Despite all the differences between the members, they want to jointly increase the importance of interests of these states at international level. At the same time, BRICS is building a rapidly growing network of bilateral cooperation between its members, ranging from trade, investment, financing and cooperation opportunities, for example on future topics such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, to military cooperation. However, some members also pursue an decidedly anti-Western agenda, including using BRICS as an opportunity to circumvent sanctions in the “axis of autocrats” (Anne Applebaum).

The West should prioritize a closer integration of western-oriented BRICS members such as Brazil, India and South Africa, as well as some new members and partners into global institutions and partnerships. The accession to the OECD considered by Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand also offers potential for closer cooperation. Free trade agreements could provide additional impetus: The rapid ratification of the EU-Mercosur Agreement and the swift conclusion of negotiations with the ASEAN states are of key importance.

A more strategic focus by Germany and the EU on cooperation with like-minded countries and on investment in the growth markets of the “Global South” can help to secure the attractiveness and influence of the West in an increasingly multipolar world. At the same time, one-sided dependencies can be effectively reduced.

The West must take BRICS seriously and not underestimate it despite its current lack of strong institutionalization. Adopting a proactive and strategic approach is crucial to staying competitive and effective in the evolving global order.

The Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, in cooperation with other leading think tanks, will be organizing a BRICS conference in Hamburg on April 3, 2025 to further analyse and discuss these topics.