Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia: Between Insecurity and Hope for Change
On Saturday, Slovaks will vote on their parliamentary representatives for the next four-year legislature and some observers already ascribe historical significance to the upcoming election campaign. The elections are taking place after four challenging years, which were marked above all by the murder of the journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová. The double murder triggered a series of protests against the government and numerous revelations of corruption and mafia contacts right up to the cabinet of the then Social Democratic head of government. Slovaks, whose confidence in institutions and the rule of law has been deeply shaken, are now demanding changes. However, it is difficult to predict who will form future government just a few days before the election.
According to a non-public election poll conducted last week (no more polls may be published within two weeks before the election), the "Direction - Social Democracy" (Smer-SD), which with a small exception of two years has been dominating the Slovak government since 2006, remains the strongest party with about 17 percent. However, its popularity is steadily declining. Together with its coalition partner, the Slovak National Party (SNS), Smer-SD tried to push through a package of social measures worth 800 million euros in an accelerated procedure just before the elections. On Tuesday, four days before the elections, parliament adopted the most expensive of the proposed measures - a law introducing the 13th pension (meaning virtually a 13th month's salary for pensioners). In the end, the other measures were not adopted.
The democratic opposition voiced strong criticism of the planned social package. They accused the two coalition parties not only of placing an economic burden on the future government, but also of working with extremists. In fact, the extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss the social measures had to be convened with the help of the ultra-nationalist and right-wing extremist "People's Party of Our Slovakia" (L'SNS), as the smaller governing party "Brücke" (M-H) did not support the extensive social spending.
Even if the Social Democrats won the election, it would be difficult for them to form a government coalition. The current tripartite coalition will most likely not be able to defend its majority. According to the latest election poll, SNS and M-H would even miss the required five percent hurdle and not enter parliament. Since M-H is currently the only party representing the interests of the Hungarian minority in parliament, there is a real possibility that the minority will not be represented for the very first time.
Smer-SD cannot count on the possible support of the democratic opposition parties either, as they had already clearly ruled out cooperation with Smer-SD in advance.
Some media speculate about a potential cooperation of the Social Democrats with the extremist L'SNS, whose popularity lies at around 10 percent. In order to achieve a majority in parliament, however, the parties would have to find other partners. The Social Democrats' top candidate, though, vehemently rules out any form of cooperation with L'SNS.
Nevertheless, the growing popularity of extremists in Slovakia gives cause for concern. The ultra-nationalist anti-system L'SNS challenges democracy, professes its support for the fascist Slovak state during the Second World War and wants Slovakia to withdraw from the EU and NATO.
The political scientist Michal Cirner from Prešov University points out that the party is not only supported by fascist-minded voters. According to the political scientist, L'SNS is also an option for supporters of the Smer-SD, who no longer want to tolerate the numerous corruption scandals and see no other alternative.
