Portugal

Portugal: A Ballot-Proof Democracy?

After celebrating the 50th anniversary of the end of the dictatorship with the Carnation Revolution in 2024, the Portuguese had hoped that 2025 would bring a calmer political landscape, with only one major electoral event on the horizon: the local elections. This expectation stemmed not only from the renewed echoes of freedom inspired by the spirit of April 1974 but also from the fatigue of a cycle of early elections that had tested the nation's democratic resilience.

After ten electoral processes since October 2020, no one expected 2025 to bring additional elections. However, unforeseen turbulence soon disrupted this outlook —legislative elections unexpectedly scheduled for May once again unsettled the country's political reality. Amid these shifting tides, how are liberals navigating these uncertain waters?

Madeira, the Atlantic trilemma

The Portuguese island of Madeira, known as the Pearl of the Atlantic, held its third regional election in just 18 months on March 23. Miguel Albuquerque, the current President of Madeira from the center-right party Partido Social Demócrata (English, Social Democratic Party, PSD- a sister party of Germany’s CDU), has faced corruption allegations involving members of his executive team, further deepening the political crisis. Nevertheless, the PSD won the election with 43.4% of the vote, securing 23 seats out of 47. This means they will need to negotiate a coalition to achieve a majority. Despite challenging circumstances and a voter abstention rate of 44%, IL managed to secure one regional parliamentary seat. IL has been clear that no coalition is possible as long as Albuquerque remains in office.

An imbalance between power and interests

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, from the center-right party PSD; faces accusations of conflict of interest relating to family businesses connected to Spinumviva, a company founded by Montenegro during his time outside politics and now managed by his family. Allegations claim that Montenegro continued to receive payments from the company even after assuming office as Prime Minister.

In response to these accusations, opposition parties, led by the far right wing party Chega (English: Enough) and the Partido Comunista Português (English: Portuguese Communist Party, PCP), submitted two motions of no confidence. The government countered by tabling a motion of confidence to demonstrate its stability. However, this motion of confidence was rejected in the National Assembly, resulting in the fall of the government. Iniciativa Liberal (English: Liberal Initiative, IL) voted in favour of the motion of confidence, arguing that they did not support the content of the no-confidence motions, presented by other opposition parties. Furthermore, IL stated that political stability was crucial for the country.

Save the date: May 18

The next legislative elections are set to take place on May 18, a situation that have heightened political tension. With the Partido Socialista (English: Socialist Party, PS) pushing to open a committee of inquiry into recent accusations to Montenegro, the political debate is heating up. Additionally, these developments are influencing early discussions around candidates for the 2026 Presidential elections, with the main parties being accused of instrumentalizing this debate in order to pave the way to the elections.

In this context, IL's evidence-based and reform-oriented is gaining traction. According to recent surveys, IL is now polling 7.7%, up from 4.9% in the previous elections. The coalition formed by Aliança Democrática (English: Democratic Alliance, AD) led by the current Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, is leading the pools with 32.1%.

IL’s and its strategy for local elections

Portugal's 2025 local elections, scheduled to late September or early October, will affect all of the country 308 municipalities and over 3,000 parishes. With 38.3% of current mayors ineligible for re-election due to term limits, IL sees an opportunity to expand its municipal presence. During its recent National Convention held in February, IL emphasized that liberals must present its own candidates and ideas, closing the door to possible pre-electoral coalitions.

The route of the electoral landscape

The recent electoral turbulence stems from internal party struggles, corruption scandals, and public dissatisfaction with governance. Since October 2020, the country has undergone nine electoral processes, with three more anticipated by the end of 2025.

• 2025: March 23: Madeira Regional Elections

• 2024: Madeira Regional Elections; Azores Regional Elections, Legislative elections and European Elections 
• 2023: Madeira Regional Elections
• 2022: Legislative Elections
• 2021: Presidential Elections  and Local Elections
• 2020: Azores regional elections

Upcoming elections:

• May 18: Legislative Elections
• Late September or early October: Local Elections

Portuguese liberals as a cornerstone for Europe

The current political instability reflects years of bipartisan dominance by PS and PSD, which has eroded public trust in institutions. This prolonged political pattern has created a volatile mix of systemic issues, including economic uncertainty and public sector struggles, particularly in education and health sectors due to staff shortages and low wages.

In this complex environment, IL has positioned itself as a credible force for reform and stability. The party holds eight seats in the National Parliament, two regional MPs (Madeira and Azores) and two seats in the European Parliament. With a pragmatic focus on reducing bureaucracy, lowering taxes, and promoting economic growth, IL has solidified its position as a dynamic alternative.

IL's recent National Convention reinforced its upward trajectory. Under the motto "Always on the Rise" (Sempre a Crescer), Rui Rocha was re-elected party president with 73.4% of the votes, strengthening IL's leadership. Mariana Leitão was elected vice president and nominated as IL's candidate for the 2026 presidential elections.

In challenging times for liberals in Europe, IL has emerged as a beacon of hope for liberalism by promoting evidence-based policies and a constructive debate. IL's growing influence may well prove that Portugal's democracy is, indeed, ballot-proof.