Presidential election in Venezuela

Continued repression against opposition as polls give democracy hope

Millions of Venezuelans are expected to vote on Sunday, July 28, in what is seen as the most pivotal election since Nicolás Maduro assumed power over a decade ago. This election, for the first time in 25 years, ignites hopes for genuine change. Chavismo, the political movement founded by the late President Hugo Chávez, is on the verge of a significant defeat at the ballot box amid a deep political and economic crisis that has led to one of Latin America’s worst humanitarian emergencies and the migration of over 7.7 million Venezuelans. While prominent liberal politician María Corina Machado and others have been barred from running, her endorsement of independent candidate Edmundo González has galvanized the opposition. Polls show González leading by an average of 20 percentage points, indicating a potential landslide victory over the authoritarian incumbent Maduro, should the election be fair.

The 2024 presidential elections in Venezuela are set for Sunday, July 28. The new term of presidency will begin office in January 2025, with the current ruling coalition remaining in parliament until late 2025. After numerous setbacks, the opposition coalition "Unitary Democratic Platform" (PUD) has nominated former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as their candidate. María Corina Machado, opposition leader of the liberal party Vente Venezuela who won a landslide victory in the opposition-organized primary elections last October but was barred from running herself, has endorsed González. The Machado-González duo is actively campaigning across the country, revitalizing opposition hopes. Recent polls indicate González leads by an average of 20 percentage points over the authoritarian incumbent, Nicolás Maduro, who is seeking a third term. Despite concerns about electoral manipulation by the regime, this outlook provides hope for Venezuelan democracy.There are additional candidates on the ballot, but they are not considered significant contenders.

The opposition’s rough path to participation and the international community’s support

Due to an existing ban on holding public office against María Corina Machado, the winner of the opposition primaries was unable to stand as a candidate. The opposition's first successor, Corina Yoris, faced obstacles when the registration website blocked her, despite no legal bans against her.

Amidst local and international criticism, the regime-controlled electoral authority granted an extension. Although Yoris still couldn't register, Edmundo González managed to do so successfully. Consequently, all ten parties in the opposition coalition unanimously agreed to support González as their sole candidate. The pressure from the international community played a significant role in this flexibility, with criticism over Yoris's exclusion coming from various fronts. This includes even the left-wing governments of Brazil and Colombia, which decided not to remain silent anymore about the regime's authoritarian measures. This week, Brazilian President Lula da Silva urged the Venezuelan regime to respect the upcoming elections, warning him:

Lula's statement was a direct response to Maduro's comments suggesting that Venezuela could face “a bloodbath” if he loses.

Millions of Venezuelans abroad unable to vote

Venezuela currently has a population of approximately 29 million, with 21 million theoretically eligible to vote in the presidential elections, both within and outside the country. Due to various restrictions, the high cost of obtaining necessary documents (such as a valid passport) which are required for voting abroad and obstacles imposed by the Chavista regime on overseas voter registration, only 69,211 Venezuelans out of the 4.5 million eligible voters living abroad are currently registered to vote.

What to expect on Sunday

A few months ago, political analyst Antonio de la Cruz outlined three possible scenarios in an interview with El Nacional: First, Maduro’s regime might accept González’s candidacy and allow him to compete lawfully. Second, González could participate, but the government might rig the result. Third, the Supreme Court could annul the Unitary Democratic Platform’s card through an appeal, barring González from running. A fourth scenario involving the complete annulment or postponement of the elections due to escalating conflict with Guyana over the Esequibo River territory was also considered by analysts but now appears less likely. As the election date approaches, analysts expect the current conditions to prevail, making the initial three scenarios still plausible.

The strategy adopted by opposition forces has shifted the political balance in Venezuela. Unlike in the past, when they often denounced election fraud and boycotted the polls, all opposition parties have now publicly committed to participating in the election, regardless of potential obstacles. Fears persist that Maduro may reject or manipulate the results. The opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia leads by an average of 20 percentage points in most reputable polls. A high turnout could counteract attempts of result manipulation. The Unitary Platform, backing González, has mobilised volunteers to observe the count at approximately 30,000 polling stations. Venezuelan law permits each party to appoint a witness at every voting table, a role that has gained significance due to the limited presence of credible international observers this year. The regime has withdrawn the European Union’s invitation to observe the vote, and while the Carter Center, United Nations, and Brazil are sending a few electoral experts, their roles are limited. On Tuesday, the opposition leader, María Corina Machado, denounced the obstacles imposed by the National Electoral Council to hinder González's campaign from downloading the credentials for their polling station witnesses. Despite having 98% of their polling station witnesses accredited, the electoral authority's website does not allow them to print the credentials.

Intensified repression and arbitrary detentions in Venezuela

The banned candidacies of Machado and other opposition members, as well as the prevention of Yoris' registration, violate the Barbados Agreement. Signed last October, this agreement required Maduro's regime to ensure free and fair presidential elections and to release political prisoners. Despite a brief détente and a “prisoner swap” shortly after the signing, 2024 began with renewed repression, leading to the imprisonment of more opposition leaders and activists. The NGO Foro Penal reports that 301 individuals are currently imprisoned for political reasons in Venezuela. Other NGOs document around 71 arbitrary arrests in the first 10 days of the election campaign in Venezuela. Additionally, six members of Vente Venezuela are sheltered in the Argentine embassy in Caracas without safe conduct to leave, violating the Convention on Diplomatic Asylum. This reflects a worrying strategy of intimidation and repression against those exercising their right to participate in the democratic process.

“Anti-fascism” bill: a new possible weapon for the Maduro regime

Amidst the regime's undemocratic electoral practices, the National Assembly recently advanced a bill for a so-called 'anti-fascism' law, which would empower the regime to suppress protests and penalize critics more severely. This could lead to criminal charges against both opposition leaders and ordinary citizens for expressing dissent or complaints on social media. Additionally, the regime has proposed a law imposing life sentences for those convicted of 'corruption and treason,' which would likely result in harsher punishments for political opponents. Together with the 'anti-fascism' bill and another initiative targeting civil society organisations, these new regulations are expected to erode human rights protections further and hinder political freedoms in Venezuela.

The humanitarian emergency and refugee crisis

About 19 million people in Venezuela lack access to adequate healthcare and nutrition, with chronic electricity and water shortages further straining healthcare services. Deteriorating infrastructure and lack of basic amenities in rural areas drive the migration to urban centres. The crisis affects education, leaving over 26% of children out of school due to illness or lack of basic services, food, and school supplies. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that 7.7 million people, about one-fifth of the population, have fled the country, with 84% residing in Latin America and the Caribbean. This is one of the largest migration movements globally, and it may increase further if the election brings no change. This mass exodus starkly illustrates the disastrous impact of Chavez and Maduro's socialist policies on Venezuela.

Current economic outlook

Despite enduring economic challenges over recent decades, the regime has recently undertaken significant reforms that have improved the economic landscape. In the lead-up to the July 28 elections, the Maduro administration has made reducing the inflation rate a cornerstone of its agenda. As of May, the annual inflation rate was estimated at 60%. While this figure remains high, it marks a stark contrast to the staggering 130,000% inflation recorded in 2018. These improvements are largely attributed to the liberalization policies initiated that year, which progressively facilitated greater use of the US dollar. This shift effectively formalized the country's de facto dollarisation as Venezuelans sought refuge from the severely devalued Bolivar. Furthermore, the Barbados Agreement, facilitated the return of foreign oil companies to Venezuela, bolstering capital inflows. In response to recently renewed sanctions, the regime has been compelled to curtail government expenditures and tap into its reserves to stabilise exchange rates and inflation. While these measures may bolster Maduro's electoral prospects in the short term, their sustainability amid ongoing economic sanctions remains highly dubious..

Future challenges

The elections in Venezuela mark a critical turning point; nonetheless, the challenges for this country are gargantuan. International support will be crucial not only on Sunday but also in the following months and years. Even if González wins, Maduro’s regime might still try to use its power to influence the transition towards democracy. Moreover, parliamentary elections will be held next year, so it is not clear whether the potential new government will be able to implement the necessary reforms. The Venezuelan opposition faces critical obstacles well beyond July 28. Unity is essential, as any fragmentation could inadvertently benefit the regime. Furthermore, strong international support is paramount, with U.S. sanctions policies, pressure from the European Union, and backing from regional allies all playing pivotal roles.

The opposition's resilience and international backing are vital in supporting Venezuela's democratic aspirations. Despite the challenges, the Venezuelan people's determination to reclaim their democratic rights and rebuild their country remains strong.