Syria

Collapse of the Assad regime in Syria

The breathtaking speed and the real-time images documenting the collapse of the Assad regime have robbed millions of people, glued to their sources of news and speaking to loved ones, of sleep in recent nights.

Wherever Syrians have sought refuge or found a new home by the millions over the past decades, and wherever in the world people perceive themselves in a geographic, political or cultural proximity to Syria, conflicting emotions - ranging from hopeful euphoria to anxiety - are running high.

Among them is Bassam Al-Kuwatli, a global citizen with Syrian roots, and president of the “Ahrar – The Syrian Liberal party”, which only last week was admitted as a full member to “Liberal International”, the world’s umbrella organization of liberal political parties, at its General Assembly in Chile.

My name is Ralf Erbel. On this Sunday afternoon, I call Mr. Al-Kuwatli on his Canadian phone number, expecting my phone call to reach him in the local morning hours on Canada’s West Coast, but instead reaching him around dinnertime in the United Arab Emirates.

Ralf Erbel: Good evening Bassam! No regime lasts forever. Your great-uncle Shukri al-Quwatli was the first president of post-independence Syria in the 1940ies and exiled after the 1963 coup by the Baath party. But frankly speaking, did you anticipate the end of the Assad regime only two weeks ago? How do you, as a Syrian liberal political activist, explain the developments of the past few days?

Bassam Al-Kuwatli: All Syrians working for freedom and democracy did anticipate Assad's demise sometime, but not that soon and that fast. The Assad regime was so entrenched that we all knew that it was not that easy to root out, but at the same time, we knew that it ruled over Syria by fear, and this could not be sustainable forever.

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime came as a surprise to all Syrians, and I believe that this included the militias that fought against him and won. It all started a while ago when Russia proposed direct talks between Assad and Erdogan. Erdogan made continuous statements extending his hand to meet Assad, while Assad rebuffed Erdogan's requests under Iranian pressure. This was insulting to both Putin and Erdogan, so both the Turks and the Russians turned a blind eye or implicit green light to HTS to attack Assad forces to get some territorial gains as a punishment for Assad. What no one did calculate is that the lack of Iranian and Hezbollah support, as both were devastated by Israeli attacks, exposed the structural weaknesses of the Syrian army, as it crumbled in front of the attacking force. HTS seized the opportunity and continued with the Turkish green light until they reached the city of Hama in central Syria. Russia, which does not have on the ground troops, could not save Assad, and things got worse for Assad when the Southern Front seized the opportunity and drove toward Damascus. We all know how the story ended.

For Syrians, this meant the liberation from 61 years of Baath party rule and the end of the involvement of two main actors in Syria, Iran and Russia. Other actors are still involved, and it will be some time before Syria is fully stabilized and Syria is entirely free.

Ralf Erbel: Secular, progressive, and liberal Syrians often view the developments with great ambivalence—torn between joy over the end of the Assad dynasty's tyranny on one hand and fear of the intentions of the victorious, Turkish-backed Islamist fighters of "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS) on the other. Which future do you see for liberal thought in Syria?

Bassam Al-Kuwatli: Syrian Liberals are happy that the main obstacle to democracy and progress is removed, especially since religious radicalism in Syria started as a reaction to the Assad dictatorship. Still, later, it was funded and supported by Assad to fight the US in Iraq and later on to take over the Syrian revolution.

The future will not be easy, as the transition to democracy has never been linear, and it takes multiple generations to achieve. There are several reassuring factors, which are:

1. HTS leaders are showing more pragmatism to guarantee some access to power.
2. The Southern Front, which did enter Damascus, is not a fundamental religious group, and it does create some kind of balance in the capital.
3. Syrians are tired of ideological policies and want a government that focuses on providing services and bringing about security.

Liberals must focus on solving people's immediate problems instead of just criticizing the status quo. People need to see that Liberals can act and not only talk.

Ralf Erbel: Syria and the Levant are on the brink of a new chapter in their history. What can Europe, and specifically Germany, do to support the Syrian people on their path toward a freer and more prosperous future?

Bassam Al-Kuwatli: Syria is not separate from the region, so Europe must work on bringing a just peace between Israel and Palestine, and later on between Israel and Syria, as this will reduce tensions in the region and eliminate another cause for radicalization. It is also essential to work on elevating the status of Syrian liberals in the international community, providing them with visibility, and direct financial support to work on their messaging and communication channels, and helping them provide youth and women with liberal education.

Bassam Al-Kuwatli, Syrian Canadian political activist. Bassam was a member of the Syrian non-violence movement against the Syrian regime’s repression. He managed the peace building unit within the Assistance Coordination Unit, and is the founder and current president of the Syrian Liberal party in exile. He holds a Masters of Conflict Management from Royal Roads University in Victoria, Canada. Currently, he leads an organization that works in the areas of monitoring & evaluation, assessments, and opinion polls in South West Asia, the Balkans and Ukraine.