Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

On 12 October Bosnians will elect in General Elections their representatives for State-, entity-, and in the FBiH cantonal-level legislatures. Voters will also cast their ballots for the Presidency of BiH and the President of the Republika Srpska (RS). 


Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina – A Revolution, Evolution, or Stagnation?

A total of 69 political parties will compete for legislative assemblies while sixteen parties nominated their candidates for all levels. In addition to political parties a number of independent candidates will run for different levels. A significant presence of independent candidates is nothing new. At the local elections in 2012 there was a number of mayoral posts that went to independents. This trend is certainly a reflection of a deep mistrust in the established political parties. It followed protracted government formation negotiations in 2010 which took altogether 14 months’ time. Meanwhile the public has reached an understanding that major political parties predominantly fight for 25.000 political posts, public enterprises, and access to public money. 


Protest and violence

The realization that the traditional political elites in Bosnia are mainly concerned with their own welfare while having virtually no regard for the concerns of the wider public came crashing back to ruling parties in February this year. A disconcerted and fragmented protest culminated in several cities in BiH, mainly in the Federation. Enraged protestors burned government buildings in Tuzla, Sarajevo, and Mostar, attacking also the private property of politicians, parties’ buildings, and clashing with the police. Following the protests, Bosnia was once again in news headlines and the covers of magazines. What seemed at the time as the final awakening of the genuine civil society in Bosnia soon deteriorated into a failed attempt at direct democracy, so called Plena that turned into talking shops and the playground for neo-Marxists and anti-globalists.


Campaign dynamics

Campaigning in BiH is normally characterized by a heated rhetoric and a radicalization of political situation. A mobilization of masses and rallying behind ethno-national chieftains has always figured prominently on the menu. These elections are no different but the fault lines this time do not seem to run between two entities / three ethnicities but rather within them. And while “nationalist” still pops up here and there the main focus is on governments’ performances, crime, corruption, and wellbeing of citizens. 


Adnan HuksicIn the Federation, the emergence of a new party (DF – Democratic Front) that according to subsequent polls by National Democratic Institute (NDI) currently still commands the majority of votes resulted in a very uncertain situation. Projections about future coalitions are widespread and incoherent. In the RS, the situation is much clearer as there are only two serious competitors: The incumbent RS President Milorad Dodik and his SNSD and the coalition of opposition parties. Given the all-or-nothing character of elections in the RS, rhetoric and fierceness in the RS beats that in the FBiH where campaign, short of few incidents appears rather calm and civilized.

The involvement of international actors is a different issue altogether. Unlike previous few elections that were characterized by almost too obvious hands-off approach, this time some actions by foreign diplomats have raised some eyebrows. Diplomats from US seem to have a champion again and it is DF. From blogs to paid ads, the international campaign resembles those from decades ago and serves as a tragic reminder of the lack of sovereignty of BiH.

Two liberal parties are campaigning individually. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDS) is part of a larger coalition while Naša stranka (NS) runs alone. Polls indicate the possibility of a significant success for NS.


Outlook

The biggest fear remains the possibility of a low turnout. Around 50% of Bosnian citizens eligible to vote abstained in the past elections from the polls. The most recent polls indicate that the number of undecided citizens remains extremely high at around 40%. Currently a number of campaigns encourage citizens to vote and exercise their democratic right. But what real choice do Bosnian voters have to change the fate of their country on forthcoming Sunday? This is a legitimate question that many have failed to give the answer to. Among those actors that have tried to improve the electoral process in Bosnia and make it more transparent and fair is the FNF. Our means of achieving this for the elections 2014 is the training for election observers. As part of this project, we trained and educated some 120 elections observer who will make sure that the electoral process on 12 October stands the test of fairness and legality.

Adnan Huskic is a project coordinator of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom in Bosnia and Herzegovina.