Montenegro’s Politics is Not Just a Black and White Game
The street protestors in Podgorica demanded the demise of Milo Djukanovic as PM of the dwarf state of 650.000 people. Protests against the PM are nothing new. Last year the opposition roamed for weeks the streets of Montenegro’s capital. Djukanovic has served either as president or prime minister of Montenegro since 1991. Thus he is the longest ruling politician in the region. His enemies blame him for creating a kleptocratic system and undermining the young democracy. In 2006 Montenegro left the state union with Serbia and quickly embarked on the path towards EU and NATO. In December 2015 the small Adriatic country received the invitation to join NATO while it successfully opened 23 out of 35 chapters with the European Commission since 2012. Currently the Montenegrin parliament started a discussion on a “no-confidence-vote” towards the PM. With regard to the majority of his party DPS it seems likely that the deputies will confirm their confidence in the work of the PM. Politics in Montenegro is about common clientelist interests.
It would be too simple to regard the protestors as “steered by Moscow or Belgrade”. Their demand for the PM to step back from office is however neither democratic nor does it show the ability to offer alternatives. “We are the people” is one of the most spread slogans as well among protestors of PEGIDA in Germany. This slogan suggests that democratically elected politicians do not represent the interests of “the people” but their own business. This assessment seems valid for most of the Balkan states. Still it puts “the people” into the shoes of a bad looser. Leading politicians of the opposition who are now walking the street would act as the current government does when they were given an opportunity. For most of the protestors their rallies serve the purpose to show that there is opposition, e.g. alternative views on topics such as NATO and EU. With their demand to change politics they have a point.
One of the main features of these protests is the lack of alternatives. What is the vision of the protestors for their future Montenegro? This question already carries too far. Politicians, representatives of the church, people who perceive themselves as losers of Montenegro’s latest developments may reach unity when it comes to the demand of Djukanovic to step back from office. But the next step to follow – to create a government of national unity – shows the lack of substance within the protestors’ plans. It follows the old narrative to kill the bad king in order to vote for a new and just king. In the moment the old king – in this case the PM – will step back, disunity will start immediately among the contenders. Successful dictators in all parts of the world show they are able to create a system of dependencies. The same goes for Milo Djukanovic who is even democratically elected. To summarize: the opposition’ weakness is based on the fact that is doesn’t have a vision for change. The PM how disputed he may rightfully be is democratically legitimized. His downfall would seriously harm Montenegro’s young democracy.
Milo Djukanovic. Source: Wikipedia
Having said this it does not mean that the PM is a “white sheep” being unjustly blamed by his opponents. There are a number of smaller incidents which might be seen as the “tip of the iceberg”: a tapping scandal in which the government tapped the cell phones of the opposition and the lack of independent media. As in many other Balkan states Montenegro’s ruling political class serves as a matchmaker between organised crime and economic interests. Old ties from Yugoslav times come in handy. However these ties are difficult to prove because there is vested interest between former elites. EU and NATO are aware of these connections, still they do the right thing: if Montenegro wants to join it has to fulfil all the necessary requirements for NATO membership and – for EU – the 35 chapters of the akquis communautaires. For the protestors there is therefore only one tangible strategy: in case they really want more transparency and democracy they should team up with the EU.
And what about “Belgrade” and “Moscow”? In a nutshell one could rightfully claim that neither the Serbian nor the Russian government like the idea of Montenegro becoming a NATO member. While NATO membership is for Serbia nothing acceptable with regard to the Alliance’s involvement in the Kosovo war of 1999 (and the bombardment of Serbian cities) its military doctrine favours a non-partisan stance between NATO and Russia. While for Russia a NATO member Montenegro diminishes strategic options to position itself as a player in (still weak) European Defence Policies. But there are other players who wield influence on the population.
The Serbian Orthodox Church is still seen as the backbone of faith for most of the people. It shares the belief that within a church there should be unity. Still, orthodox churches in the Balkans show a strong tendency to become a national church. So it might be only a question of time until a patriarch for the Montenegrin Church will be consecrated. The more features Montenegro as an independent state develops from Serbia (NATO accession could be one of them) the more it becomes likely that a new split within the church might occur. Protestors on the street who oppose Montenegro’s way after gaining full independence might stick to the church’s position. In Serbia you needn’t be a nationalist to ask: “what is the Montenegrin national identity”? Since both nations were historically always close to each other, speak the same language and share the same religion and history it may look for a Serbian patriot like a mockery of the “system Djukanovic” to create his own nation. What seems true is however that the newly established democracy in Montenegro did not manage to offer all of its citizens a clear idea about how their state intends to serve as well their interests. If the government really wants to breach the rift within Montenegro’s society it should not look for confrontation but dialogue. The best way to convince a significant number of the opposition about the future course of the country is to reduce unemployment and invest in education.
For more information visit the website and Facebook page of the Project Office of FNF Western Balkans.