Solving the nuclear crisis - Dr. Hecker

On March 21st, 2012 on the eve of the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul internationally renowned security experts from the U.S., Russia, Japan, China and Korea came together to discuss issues of nuclear safety and security in Northeast Asia. The international conference “Rethinking nuclear issues in North East Asia” that was jointly organized by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of Kyungnam University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) was opened by Dr. Lee Su-hoon, Director of IFES, and Mr. Manfred Richter, Member of FNF’s Board of Directors.

In his keynote speech, former ROK Minister of Unification und current President of Kyungnam University, Park Jae-kyu, highlighted the diplomatic efforts taken to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis. One major step to reduce the crisis was the outcome of negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK in Geneva in 1994: the Agreed Framework that initiated “meaningful interaction and cooperation” between the U.S., DPRK, ROK and Japan. The second nuclear crisis in 2002 led to the establishment of the six-party talks in which the major stakeholders are taking part. This multilateral forum has achieved something but it failed to stop the DPRK from testing missiles and nuclear devices. In addition, it illustrates the differing strategic and political interests of the parties that obstruct a common policy towards the DPRK. Minister Park welcomed the recent agreement reached between the DPRK and the U.S. but emphasized that denuclearization would need to be solved in the framework of the six-party talks.

In the first session, Dr. Leon Sigal (Social Science Research Council) gave an assessment of the Obama Doctrine. According to him, the new nuclear doctrine led to some changes but there are still steps to be taken such as the withdrawal of its remaining non-strategic or tactical warheads from Europe and the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Prof. Savelyev (IMEMO) discussed the achievements and challenges of the Global Partnership Program that was established by the G-8 states in 2002. He reminded the audience of the differing threat perceptions that exist in Russia and the U.S. with regard to national security. The speaker emphasized that the lack of trust was the “most serious obstacle” to a closer cooperation “in practically all the spheres of security, including non-proliferation issues”. South Korea’s perspective on the G-8 Global Partnership was presented by Lee Sang-hyun, Director for Planning and Coordination of the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. In Lee’s view, the South Korean government will seek to take “a more active role” in global efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Great attention drew the presentation of Dr. Siegfried Hecker (Stanford University) who had visited the DPRK’s nuclear facilities in the past. In a special session chaired by former ROK Foreign Minister Song Min-soon, the U.S. scientist gave a brief overview on the DPRK’s nuclear program and recent nuclear developments. According to estimates, the DPRK has about four to eight nuclear bombs but it has “not much of a nuclear arsenal”. However, there is reason to believe that Pyongyang is trying to develop missile-capable nuclear systems. More nuclear tests would be needed to employ small nuclear warheads. What seemed to concern Dr. Hecker most were safety issues related to the operation of a light-water reactor (LWR): “What is especially troubling is that this [LWR] is a new endeavor for North Korea and its technical specialists have not been part of the global nuclear safety community.” He also proposed some steps to reduce the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula but with regard to a solution of this crisis, he was “optimistic in the long term but pessimistic in the short term”.

Further topics discussed during the last session of this meeting included the future of nuclear power in Northeast Asia, especially after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Prof. Jian Cai (Fudan University) gave a comparative analysis of the current status of nuclear power and related policies in China, South Korea and Japan. Prof. Takahara Takao called on the governments to overcome the “Cold-War mindset” and to jointly work for a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Northeast Asia.