Analysis

Geopolitical Future of South Caucasus

In the past four years, the South Caucasus has experienced geopolitical turbulence that has significantly altered the regional status quo. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Russia–Ukraine War, Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia in 2021 and 2022, Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, and the forced displacement of Armenians have created a new reality on the ground. The transformation of the world order, the Russia–West confrontation, the gradual involvement of Global South actors in the region, the emergence of new transit and trade routes, climate change, and the rapid development of disruptive technologies have amplified the impact of these events. The South Caucasus now finds itself amid great power competition and regional rivalry, while internal conflicts threaten its stability and development.
In this environment, analyzing regional developments and assessing the future of South Caucasus geopolitics is crucial for all interested in a peaceful and prosperous region. This allows for a better understanding of current developments and better preparation for the future.
 

Author – Benyamin Poghosyan

Based on the principles of liberalism, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom offers civil education in Germany and more than 60 countries around the world. In the South Caucasus region, we closely collaborate with partners from civil society, academia, media, and politics. Together, we promote democracy, fight against disinformation and hybrid warfare, stand for human rights and the rule of law, and encourage innovative solutions based on the principles of the social market economy. Additionally, we foster dialogue by creating a network among liberals in the South Caucasus.

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