US Elections
US Presidential Elections 2024 and Sri Lanka
In the geopolitical competition for regional influence, Sri Lanka’s strategic location is acknowledged by the United States Department of State in their most updated Integrated Country Strategy paper, released on May 2, 2023[1]. Reflection on Sri Lanka’s history is brought to light in the same paper when it mentions that “More than 60,000 ships - including two-thirds of the world’s seaborne crude oil, half of its container ships, and all U.S. Navy vessels passing between 5th and 7th fleets - annually transit Sri Lankan waters.” In seeking to secure the Indo-Pacific, the US is in favor of close collaborative bilateral relations with Sri Lanka.
Since the end of civil war in Sri Lanka, United States (US) relations with Sri Lanka suffered a distancing during the presidential terms of both Mahinda Rajapakse and Gotabhaya Rajapakse. Instead of building a foundation for sustainable peace based on democratic inclusion and good governance, the two presidents continued a path to strengthen authoritarian features of the executive presidency, causing a deepening process of democratic backsliding during this period[2]. In trying to get Sri Lanka to set human rights priorities and democratic governance, bilateral US - Sri Lanka relations continued to further deteriorate. In 2022, a wave of political protests triggered by a massive economic crisis resulted in self-imposed exile and then the removal from office for Gotabhaya Rajapakse. Since then, US - Sri Lanka relations can be seen as being revamped.
Harris vs Trump
Foremost objective of the US in the Indo-Pacific region is to promote American security interests. America believes that they can affect this by increasing Sri Lanka’s capacity to protect its sovereignty. Both leading presidential candidates in the upcoming US elections seem not to deviate from this objective. Disagreements among the candidates, however, may arise on how exactly they will support such an increase.
2024 Presidential Elections in the United States are to take place on Tuesday, November 5th. In a conversation with a Fox News host, in June 2023, Former President Trump (referred to hereafter as Trump) showed his interest in debating President Joe Biden on the assumption he would re-run for the office of the President. At that time President Biden had not committed to participating in a debate. There were conflicts on both sides with regards to the rules of the debate. Then in April 2024, President Biden confirmed that he would debate Former President Trump. By March, both President Biden and Trump were the presumptive nominees of their respective political parties. With the affirmation by President Biden to participate in the debate, this became the second such presidential rematch since 1956. Seeking re-election after four years, Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower once again defeated his Democratic opponent, Adlai Stevenson.
However, the first indication that something was wrong in President Joe Biden’s Campaign for re-election came not at this first debate but at a Hollywood fundraiser. As reported by Newsweek, on June 16, the footage showing incapacitated President Biden being guided off the stage by former President Barack Obama and late-night host Jimmy Kimmel began to circulate widely in social media. Supporters as well as opponents began to question his ability to hold office, let alone run for another term. The glamorous event was a fundraiser for the Democratic party, co-hosted by George Clooney in Los Angeles. It featured Julia Roberts and Barbara Streisand among other mega stars and managed to raise in a single-night record of donations amounting to roughly $30 million for Biden’s Presidential Campaign. When the revealing video turned viral on social media and began circulation among international news agencies, Clooney wrote to the opinion page of The New York Times about needing a new candidate. Biden Campaign forged ahead without any comment about his diminishing abilities.
Hunter Biden (second son of President) along with the President have been targeted with allegations of corruption mainly concerning Ukraine. Hunter has been under federal criminal investigation for tax evasion since late 2018 and for drug use and firearms related felony since 2019. There were conversations in social media and by the Trump campaign that before the 2020 elections, mainstream media were forced to not give publicity to these alleged felonies. In June 2024, Hunter was convicted of firearms related felony charges. On September 5th, Hunter pled guilty to all the tax charges and is awaiting sentencing.
In the meantime, Trump is facing charges of fraud, hush money, election subversion and obstruction. In May, a jury in Manhattan found him guilty of 34 counts of felony convictions. Sentencing in both fraud and hush money suits have been postponed until after the elections. Party supporters claim that sentencing would have made the Trump campaign stronger as these lawsuits were seen by the supporters as political persecution tactics. On election subversion, Supreme Court justices ruled on July 1 that a president is immune from prosecution of any “official” actions and found that some of the allegations of his attempting to subvert 2020 elections were official actions. 40 federal charges were imposed against Trump for obstruction and allegedly holding classified documents at his residence in Mar-a-Largo. FBI carried out a court-authorized search in August 2022. While that was going on, on a separate search, investigators recovered sensitive information including military and foreign policy in Afghanistan, notebooks containing handwritten entries about national security and foreign policy issues retained by President Biden after his vice presidency. This investigation became public on January 9, 2023. President Biden did not face any criminal charges. According to the U.S. attorney’s report it was because President Biden had cooperated with the investigation. It was also because of the Justice Department policy that sitting presidents cannot be charged criminally. Charges against Former President Trump were dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon on July. Special Counsel Jack Smith who charged Trump with these felonies appealed that dismissal.
Amidst all these allegations in the backdrop, the first presidential election debate between the two main candidates was held on June 27. President Biden used such incomplete and incomprehensible phrases as “Look, if - we finally beat Medicare.” This was a disastrous event for President Biden’s re-election campaign. Still, he did not step down immediately afterwards.
An attempt to assassinate Trump was made at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. After crouching down when a bullet grazed his right ear he rose up at the podium with a close fist shouting “Fight, fight,” before being led away by the Secret Service. His popularity increased. Few days later, he was officially nominated as the Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
Until this attempt at an assassination, polls showed a close race, but now Trump was gaining a stronger lead. Former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi informed the media that she had a private conversation with President Joe Biden in which she explained to the President that he cannot defeat Donald Trump.
U.S. Senators are elected to six-year terms. They can be re-elected indefinitely the same as Representatives of the U.S. House who have two-year terms. As of this writing, the U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including 3 Independents) and 49 Republicans. This means the Democratic Party currently controls the U.S. Senate. On General Election Day, there are 34 Senate seats up for election, this includes a special election in Nebraska. Of these 23 are currently held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control of the Senate with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. According to the U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3, the Vice President of the United States is the President of the Senate and holds the tie-breaking vote. So, it is a tight race to win the majority of the Senate. As of September 7, poll by “270 to win” forecasts 50 Republicans and 46 Democrats and 2 Independents to win Senate seats. The Republican Party currently controls the U.S. House. A total of 435 House seats are up for elections on November 5. As of September 7, poll by “270 to win” forecasts a close race with two seats win for the Republicans.[3] Facing the fear that if President Biden continued to be the nominee will result in losing control of the House of Representatives, over 30 democrats came forward to publicly call on him to drop out of the 2024 race.
On Sunday the July 21st, issuing a letter from the White House, President Joe Biden dropped out, ending his bid for re-election. In it he said, “I want to thank Vice President Kamala Harris for being an extraordinary partner in all of this work”. Few hours after issuing that letter, intent on serving out the remainder of his term in office, President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris(referred to hereafter as Harris) to become the Democratic nominee via a social media post. With less than four months to go and since most of the primaries have been held, this act eliminated the convention people enjoyed voting their choice. However, media reports of immediate approval of Harris began to circulate.
Harris chose Tim Walz as her running mate on August 6 and they were certified as nominated on the same night. In recent weeks some democrats including Ruben Diaz, Sr., Tulsi Gabbard, Gloria Romero, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who ran as an independent candidate, have come forward to say that they are supporting her opponent. The State of Michigan has refused to drop the name of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. from the Presidential ballot which will result in people still opting to vote for him after he had dropped out and endorsed Trump.
Day before the presidential debate between Harris and Trump, The New York Times announced that “a new poll suggests Harris’s support has stalled after a euphoric August.” During the September 10 debate Harris gave the most coherent performance in her political career thus far. Time, she had taken off the campaign trail to prepare for the debate was fruitful.[4] Quite confident of her performance that a second debate with CNN as host was requested by her campaign. Trump was baited to make continuous comments to clarify and correct his views and plans.[5] The next day Trump announced there will not be a third debate. While, his supporters may not change sides due to his debate performance, all the undecided voters would now be up for grabs. Polls show a close race with 7 weeks to go till election day.
Outlook for Global Economic Relations
Michigan -Ross poll conducted by The Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business surveyed 1000 registered voters nationwide to track prevailing economic sentiment in the US between May 2 – 6. Of those who participated 71% believed the economic condition in the country to be negative. Further rising prices of consumer goods are one of the biggest financial challenges to voters.[6]
Economy being in the forefront of American voters, neither candidate would, at least until elections have taken place, promise lesser tariffs to any country. Donald Trump and Biden (earlier) now Kamala Harris are not vastly different from each other when it comes to trade policies and tariffs. Taking a page out of Trump’s book, President Biden’s office declared that the U.S. will be raising tariffs on Chinese imports. It is seen clearly as an election tactic. It is in the hopes that these higher tariffs will result in US products to be able to better compete against Chinese imports. These higher tariffs will be seen on electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium-ion EV batteries as well as batteries for non-electric vehicles.[7] Trump scoffed at these measures as too little too late. Support for Israel’s war in Gaza and the funding for Ukraine are other factors causing low voter percentage points for Harris. Younger Americans, and those who identify themselves as Progressives, as well as Arab Americans have abandoned support for President Biden as he supports Israel. This is the case especially in Michigan where there are many Arab Americans in the Democratic Party.[8]
After the long and costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the promise of staying out of foreign wars was a major reason for Americans to show support for Donald Trump during his first run for the Presidency. Abraham Accords, signed by Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan during Trump’s term in office reminds the U.S. voter of Trump’s ability of not using military means to attain bilateral objectives overseas.
In general, Global economic relations could be a dilemma for either president. In the US two or more branches of the government could have conflicts with each other. The Office of the President may hold a certain focus, and the State Department another and the Congress still another. The Reagan Administration saw this especially with the Secretary of State Alexander Haig regarding Latin America.[9] In November, whoever gets elected to the office will be a “lame duck” a term Americans use to define the final term of the president, therefore having less support from other branches of the government. Either administration will be cautious in their global economic relations with Russia still in Ukraine, and with the Israel-Gaza war still raging on.
Multi- lateral Relations in South Asia
With regards to multilateral relations in South Asia, in particular the economy of Sri Lanka will not suffer or gain in a significant way under either president. Neither Harris nor Trump seem to willingly get involved in any situation that they would have to send American troops to the region. If Trump who win the office, it will be his last term of office. This will also be a factor that would keep him from getting any lofty ideas to pass through the representatives of the house or the senate. It is more likely that both will try their hardest to concentrate on strengthening the American economy to leave behind that as their legacy. There may arise opportunities for Sri Lanka’s political leaders to gain advantageous trade agreements with the U.S. if Sri Lanka could keep working towards being a financially stable country.
Sri Lanka – US Bilateral relations in Economic sphere
2024 presidential elections in the US will not have a major impact for Sri Lanka. It would not make a significant difference for US - Sri Lanka bilateral relations whether it is Harris or Trump who will be the next president. Economic benefits to Sri Lanka will depend on how the trade agreements are negotiated.
The 75th anniversary of the US – Sri Lanka bi lateral relations were celebrated in 2023 in the backdrop of crucial assistance from the US in countering the COVID-19 pandemic through COVAX facility Center for Disease Control and Prevention of US government which donated over 3.4 million doses of US Manufactured COVID-19 vaccines to Sri Lanka. Further US provided pandemic aid of 17.9 million USD to Sri Lanka including a donation of 200 portable ventilators which has been critical in advancing Sri Lanka’s response to COVID 19. By August of 2021, USA has been the 3rd largest vaccine donor to Sri Lanka donating 1,500,000 of Moderna Vaccines and 540,540 of Pfizer Vaccines.[10]
At present, the US is Sri Lanka’s top export partner. The US is the primary export destination of the country with more than US dollars 3.3 billion worth of exports. The US continues to be the single largest garment export destination for Sri Lanka, with a share of 42 per cent of total garment exports in 2022. In addition to garments, export earnings from the US were mainly on account of rubber products, machinery and mechanical appliances, and chemical products.[11] Some Sri Lankan exports to the United States qualify for duty free privileges under the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, which expired in December 2020 pending its renewal by the U.S. Congress. The fact that US as the first major bilateral development partner for Sri Lanka in 2022 with a partnership grants worth of US $ 78 million,[12] the top export partner, and the US GSP, is not widely publicized. Due to volatile situation in the country and frequent energy supply breakdowns resulted in increased costs and a fall in orders in the last quarter of 2023. The Chairman of the Free Trade Zone Manufacturers’ Association announced that around 20 percent of the large-scale garment factories had decided to close for a short period while 50 percent of small and medium scale factories have already been closed.[13] Sri Lanka should do more, such as investigate becoming a warehousing hub for U.S. yarn as suggested by the International Trade Administration,[14] to further collaborations with the US which requires diplomacy and efficiency of Sri Lankan leaders.
United States-Sri Lanka bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), signed in 2002, provides a framework for the two governments to discuss and resolve trade and investment issues at an early stage. The most recent TIFA discussions occurred in September 2023. At this 14th TIFA meeting both the US and Sri Lanka acknowledged that improving transparency and efficiency in approving foreign direct investments (FDI) in Sri Lanka and the implementation of robust anti – corruption measures are instrumental in supporting domestic economic growth and attracting FDI. Further, the US conveyed to Sri Lanka that working as trading partners to support Workers’ Rights is a top priority issue of the Biden – Harris administration. The US also encouraged the reduction of agricultural trade barriers to bolster food security in Sri Lanka.[15]
It is also a presidential election year in Sri Lanka, due a month before the US Presidential election, the country is yet to recover fully from the financial crisis it faced during the last two years or so, the worst for people of Sri Lanka since independence. According to Dinesh Weerakkody a significant challenge remains in managing the country’s large sovereign debt and inequities of the partial coverage domestic debt optimization programme that unfairly burdens the ordinary people and salaried participants in the economy, whilst excluding the financial services sector.[16]
There are thirty-eight aspirants who want to be the ninth Executive President of Sri Lanka. That is at least one and half million Sri Lankans per candidate with a population of 22 million. This is a marked contrast to the US, where there is a population of 345 million and has only five candidates with the two main contestants are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. There are three independent and third-party candidates – Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver as Robert F. Kennedy declared support to Trump as previously mentioned.
The presidential election is a close run between the three main candidates, that is the incumbent, the opposition leader and the new comer Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The election manifesto and slogan used by incumbent President Puluwan in Sinhala language is closely resembling the slogan used by Barrak Obama in 2008 which was “Yes, we can.” [17]
In conclusion, Sri Lanka was fortunate that very early in the crisis the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to the country’s rescue. In June 2023 World Bank’s country director for Sri Lanka stated that "Through a phased approach, the World Bank Group strategy focuses on early economic stabilization, structural reforms, and protection of the poor and vulnerable." The World Bank approved $700 million in budgetary and welfare support for Sri Lanka, the biggest funding tranche for the crisis-hit island nation.[18] As the World Bank and the IMF celebrate their 80th anniversary in 2024, the influence of the US on both is no secret. All 14 Presidents to date of the World Bank have been high profile US political or business powers. The United States is the only country with a de facto right of veto at the World Bank. The US continues to be the largest cumulative contributor to the IMF and holds the largest voting bloc that holds effective veto power for its many decisions. Therefore, it is to Sri Lanka’s advantage to heed to the guidance provided by both these institutions while on its path to financial stability and that is the expectation of the people of Sri Lanka irrespective of who wins the Presidential election here or in the US.
References
[1] Department of State, United States of America, Integrated Country Strategy, For Public Release, approved: April 6, 2022, Reviewed and Updated: May 2, 2023
[2] Post-war Democracy Building Initiatives in Sri Lanka (2015-2019), Lessons Learned, by Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, August 6, 2022
[3] https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/
[4] https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1833871207114084380?t=eY9LC1LSnqFKrOivzqIzwA&s=19
[5] See analysis of the debate by Ben Shapiro, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WL_BJ6m_PZ
[6] FT – Michigan Ross Poll, May 13, 2024
[7] New US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells could raise consumer prices, by Matthew Daly, AP (Associated Press), May 14, 2024
[8] Michigan’s Largest Arab American cities reject Biden over his handling of Israel-Hamas War, AP (Associated Press), February 28, 2024
[9] Reagan’s Foreign Policy, A Short History of the Department of State, Office of the Historian, history.state.gov
[10] US Embassy Colombo, 2021
[11] Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2023
[12] Department of External Resources, 20223
[13] 20% of apparel factories face 3-month closure after December, Sri Lanka Mirror, November 23, 2023
[14] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/sri-lanka-textiles
[15] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/sri-lanka-trade-agreements
[16] Daily Mirror, May 22, 2024
[17] https://www.sundaytimes.lk/240818/columns/nominations-over-now-the-big-battle-begins-568124.html and also see https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-presidential-election-explained-wi…
[18] https://www.voanews.com/a/world-bank-approves-700m-for-crisis-hit-sri-lanka-/7159610.html