Croatia

A Controversial President on a Winning Streak

For the first time in almost three decades, a relatively clear result of the Croatian presidential elections is predicted for 29 December – although the incumbent president himself, the frontrunner, is anything but non-controversial. Even if Zoran Milanović would have to go into the run-off two weeks later, the incumbent’s victory seems certain according to the polls. The populist’s media strategy, which is based on provocative, opportunistic and often insulting speeches on a daily basis, is bearing fruit.

Almost every day, Croatian President Zoran Milanović can be seen visiting provincial festivals, gatherings of war veterans – exclusively known as “defenders” in Croatia – and various state institutions. While doing so, he never misses an opportunity to make undiplomatic and derogatory comments about the work of the conservative HDZ government, but also about various events in the world. Neither in Croatia nor abroad, his statements are those of what one would consider “a typical social democrat”. In an often-appalling manner, the president complains about the state of Croatia, using nationalistic, even pro-Russian tones. Accordingly, he threatened to veto Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO, and would stop Croatia's support for Ukraine rather sooner than later. Between 35 and forty percent of the Croatian public seem to like this kind of politics.

The ruling national-conservative HDZ is sending the respected scientist Dragan Primorac into the race. Primorac, who held the post of minister of education years ago, can be sure of the support of around a quarter of the electorate. His deficit to Milanović can be explained by both a lack of charisma and a lack of presence in politics in recent years. While HDZ consistently secures over thirty percent in parliamentary elections, its presidential candidate polls only between twenty and twenty-five percent, thus highlighting HDZ’s dependence on Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.

It would stand to reason that the incumbent President Milanović would find himself on the defensive during the election campaign, given his mixed first-term record. However, it is often Primorac who has to defend himself, as government policy is projected onto him, in which he himself is not even involved.

Under a distant second

Two other candidates, out of a total of eight submitted, deserve attention: Marija Selak-Raspudić, who left the right-wing populist “Most” party shortly after the parliamentary elections in April 2024, is trying to make a name for herself in the political centre, with her appearances being predominantly characterized by conservative views. In opinion polls, this has garnered ten to twelve percent support, mainly from conservative voters who are dissatisfied with HDZ.

Member of Parliament Ivana Kekin from the green party “Možemo” garners support among progressive-alternative voters. She is known for her campaigns to protect minority rights and the fight against corruption. As the green camp in Croatia is small, it is polling at seven to nine percent. Nevertheless, her criticism of the almost universal corruption within the HDZ and the associated threats against her could bring her additional support in the final days of the election campaign.

Corruption wherever you look

Having been an EU member state for eleven years and receiving full EU funding, corruption and abuse of power are widespread. Thus, both topics have been two of the most important domestic political issues in Croatia for years, which has enabled President Milanović to make it the main topic of his election campaign. He likes to compare his time as Prime Minister from 2011 to 2016 with that of the current Prime Minister Plenković, who has been in power since 2016 and has had to replace thirty ministers, mostly due to proven corruption. The EU Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO), which was founded in 2021 and is present on the ground, is increasingly making itself heard, especially through independent investigations and arrests based on them.

At the same time, HDZ candidate Primorac reminds voters daily of the good economic record of the HDZ-led governing coalition, while the period of the Milanović government is remembered as an era of crises, unemployment and large waves of emigration – one of the main causes of the country's current demographic crisis.

In terms of foreign policy, Croatia, a member of NATO since 2009, supports the defense of Ukraine, but differences between the two leading candidates are evident here as well. While Primorac and Prime Minister Plenković's support for Ukraine is unconditional within the scope of Croatian possibilities, Milanović's statements are often aimed at raising doubts about this war, and presenting himself as a representative of authentic Croatian interests. This is where the social democrat overtakes the national conservative candidate on the right.

Milanović used his five-year term as president to present himself as the “voice of the people” and the “controller of the government”. He was not afraid to constantly tell Prime Minister Plenković and his ministers “unpleasant truths” without being asked, without actually taking any responsibility as president. In this way, Milanović stylized himself as the antithesis of Prime Minister Plenković and the leading figure of the opposition through constant contradiction – and this as president, mind you!

Popular parties have settled in

To a certain extent, all of this also benefits Prime Minister Plenković, as the oftentimes pathetic conflict with the president helps him to maintain his narrow majority in parliament. With two strong popular parties, smaller parties are finding it difficult to break up the oligarchy of HDZ and SDP grandees that has emerged in Croatia.

This situation highlights the lack of a strong liberal alternative in Croatian politics. The liberal opposition parties “Centar” and IDS back Milanović’s re-election, while the government-aligned HSLS supports the HDZ – all without much enthusiasm. Lacking strong candidates and financial resources, they recognize their subordinate position to the major parties. Support for a conservative government by HSLS on the one hand and fierce opposition to a corruption-ridden government by “Centar” on the other, is the dividing line among Croatian liberals, which has prevented a powerful liberal camp for years.

The rise or decline of the liberal parties will be decided in the local elections in May 2025. The three strongest liberal parties will try to win or defend leading positions in their respective strongholds: “Centar” in Split-Dalmatia on the Adriatic, IDS in Istria and HSLS in the region around the city of Bjelovar. If they fail to do so, the future of liberalism in Croatia will look bleak.

Dušan Dinić is Senior Manager for Croatia and Serbia at the Western Balkans office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom in Belgrade.