Hungary Election Countdown

Research on Party Affiliation in Hungary

The Republikon Institute conducted a research on voters’ preferences before the Hungarian parliamentary election. The research was conducted between February 18 and 24.

Not surprisingly, the strongest political formations are the ruling party coalition Fidesz-KNDP, supported by 40 % of total population, and the opposition alliance United for Hungary with the support of 39 %. These alliances are followed by smaller parties: a joke party "MKPP - Hungarian Party of the two-tailed dog" and a radical nationalist party "Mi Hazánk".

Favourable position of the first two political formations is not a surprise. The numbers have been stable, and they practically have not changed since the beginning of 2022. This unusually tight race between Hungary’s current Prime Minister Orbán and his challenger Péter Márki-Zay is partly a result of the fact, that both candidates are perceived as conservative. Hence, Orbán’s usual and successful tactics of describing opposition politicians as a leftist threat to the Hungarian traditional values cannot be applied against his rival.

The Republikon Institute further asked about the importance of a public debate between the two prime minister candidates, which would take place before the elections. The majority of respondents perceives this as important (60 %), less than a third thinks the opposite.

Taking a closer look at the two main competing alliances (see graph), there is a significant difference between the stance of the opposition voters towards the question and the voters of Fidesz. Whereas 92 % of opposition voters are in favour of the debate, only 34 % of the government supporters think the same.

According to another research by the Republikon Institute, since the Hungarian political transition, the electoral results in the capital and in the countryside have tended to differ, with leftist and liberal parties usually doing better in Budapest than in other parts of the country. That was strongly demonstrated in the last elections.

The April 2022 election will be the first parliamentary election since the Fidesz-KDNP victory in 2010 in which the main question will not be whether the current governing parties will win a two-thirds majority in parliament, but whether they will maintain their majority in the house at all. For the first time in a while, the opposition is in a position to have a real chance of changing government, thanks to the united run-off.

The poll was conducted by interviewing 1 000 people by telephone. The research is representative of the country’s adult population by gender, age, education and type of settlement. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%. Link to the research report here: http://en.republikon.hu/research/22-02-kvk.aspx

About Republikon Institute

Republikon Institute is a liberal think tank organisation based in Budapest, focusing on analysing Hungarian and international politics, formulating policy recommendations and initiating projects that contribute to a more open, democratic and free society. The goal of the Institute is to promote discussion and implementation of liberal ideas, approaches and policies.

This article is part of the focus "Hungary Election Countdown", published by the Prague office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.