USA - Venezuela

Sanctions, Migration, and Power Dynamics: Trump’s Course Against Maduro

Starting April 2, drastic tariffs will take effect: Any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff on all exports to the United States. The goal is to dry up the regime’s financial resources.

Oil Licenses Revoked – The End of Appeasement?

Another turning point came in early March when the U.S. revoked oil licenses for Venezuela. The move primarily affects Chevron, which, despite intense lobbying efforts, only received a short-term extension. This decision was solidified over the weekend. The U.S. government informed Repsol, Eni, Maurel & Prom, Reliance Industries, and Global Oil Terminals that they must wind down their business with Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, by the end of May.

These decisions undo the failed Biden administration policy toward Venezuela, which, starting in 2022, allowed generous oil licenses for dealings with Maduro—effectively providing a blank check to a repressive regime. A recent study by the Center for Global Development also highlights a direct correlation between the Maduro regime’s increasing oil revenues and rising migration. More money for the regime means more police state tactics, more repression—and, ultimately, more people fleeing.

China and Venezuela’s Debt

A key element of U.S. policy is isolating Venezuela. This directly impacts China, the primary buyer of Venezuelan oil, which accounted for nearly 70% of Venezuela’s exports in 2023. The sanctions have already had short-term effects: Venezuelan oil exports to China have sharply declined. Furthermore, China has shown little interest in further investing in Venezuela. Between 2018 and 2023, no new Chinese investments were made in the sector according to Transparency International. Instead, Beijing is focused on restructuring Venezuela’s debt rather than deepening economic ties.

Internal Power Struggles: Migration vs. Isolation

The new strategy bears the hallmark of the State Department under Marco Rubio. The U.S. Secretary of State from Florida, as son of Cuban migrants, is well-versed in the power plays of authoritarian regimes and has adopted a hardline stance against the dictatorships in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Rubio relies on isolation and maximum pressure to economically and politically corner Maduro.

However, resistance to this hardline stance exists within Trump’s inner circle. Richard Grenell, former U.S. ambassador to Germany and a key Trump ally, has advocated for normalizing relations with Venezuela to facilitate deportations. In response to the oil license revocation, Maduro immediately halted deportation flights. The intensified restrictions over the weekend were partially a reaction to Venezuela’s reluctance to accept deported nationals.

Venezuelan migration has become a major domestic issue. In 2023, an estimated 900,000 Venezuelans were living in the U.S. However, the Republican Party lacks a unified stance. Senators María Elvira Salazar and Rick Scott from Florida argue for individual case reviews for deportations, while others push for mass removals.

Crime, Rhetoric, and Deportation Policies

Venezuelan migrants are increasingly facing negative public perception, fueled by criminal activities linked to the "Tren de Aragua", a Venezuelan drug cartel classified as a terrorist organization by Trump. The group has close ties to Diosdado Cabello, Venezuela’s Minister of the Interior and Justice.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, only 600 out of 900,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. have been linked to the group. Nevertheless, in March, a controversial mass deportation of 238 Venezuelans took place, sending them to a high-security prison in El Salvador. Reports from Human Rights Watch describe severe conditions in the facility, including overcrowding, violence, and torture.

Legally, these deportations remain highly contentious. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which the administration used as justification, allows for the detention or deportation of individuals from enemy states only in wartime. Many legal experts argue that the executive branch cannot unilaterally declare a state of war without Congressional approval. Additionally, concerns have been raised about whether the deported individuals received due process of law.

Following the deportations, Maduro’s regime ultimately relented and resumed accepting deportation flights. Caracas framed this as a national decision, despite the fact that many of the deported individuals had initially fled the country due to economic collapse and political repression.

Economic Reality: Venezuelans as a Key Workforce

While deportations dominate headlines, the economic contributions of Venezuelan migrants are often overlooked. In South Florida, they play a crucial role in the economy. According to a UCLA study, Venezuelan immigrants with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) contribute $3.5 billion annually to the U.S. economy and pay over $400 million in Social Security taxes.

Additionally, 76% of Venezuelans in the U.S. are employed, primarily in essential sectors like transportation, construction, and resource extraction. However, nearly 700,000 Venezuelans are on the verge of losing their TPS after the Trump administration ended its renewal. Legal challenges are currently underway to have the Department of Homeland Security’s decision reviewed in federal court.

Appeasement or Hardline Strategy? A Pivotal Shift

The Trump administration appears to be redefining its Venezuela strategy. However, it would be an oversimplification to frame the issue as a binary choice between maximum economic pressure and appeasement to control migration.

One thing is clear: Biden’s failed policies have demonstrated that sanctions and tariffs are essential in weakening Maduro’s financial base. The U.S. should strategically use its economic power to target adversarial regimes, such as the maduro gegime, not its allies.

However, appeasement alone will not stop migration. Migration is not merely a consequence of short-term economic hardship, but rather a result of profound political and social collapse. A lasting solution demands a clear strategy for democratic transition.

A continuation of Maduro’s regime is not just a threat to Venezuela—it poses a risk to the United States and the region as well.

Diana Luna, Latin America Policy Advisor.