DISINFORMATION

Trump's victory over the liberal conspiracy and Slovakia's new strategic partners. Disinformation agents legitimise cooperation with Russia and China

Infosecurity.sk presents an overview of disinformation trends that have been on the rise in the last two weeks:

• The Slovak disinformation ecosystem was shaken by the US presidential election. Donald Trump's win was presented as a disaster for the so-called progressive political elites and the media. According to the disinformers, they were to wage a dirty, unfair and even conspiratorial campaign against the future 47th President of the USA. In addition, Trump's success was presented as a hope for peacemaking in Ukraine.
• The official government visit to China was accompanied by the publication of celebratory posts on social media. In particular, the leaders of the ruling coalition themselves spoke of the need to build a strategic partnership with China and dismissed possible security risks. Criticism of human rights violations in China was discredited as reinforcing so-called Sinophobia.
• In addition to the visit to China, Prime Minister Robert Fico's appearance on the Russian propaganda television programme Rossiya-1 was supposed to be a manifestation of a sovereign foreign policy on all four sides of the world. In it, Fico presented false calls for peace in Ukraine and repeated Kremlin lies.
• On home soil, Fico fabulated about another alleged assassination attempt on his person, which was supposed to have taken place during the celebrations of the Carpatho-Dukla operation. Although these allegations had no real basis, they served to smear the opposition. The latter was intended to foster hatred and hostility in society.

The aftershocks of the US presidential election

Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election was celebrated by the Slovak disinformation ecosystem. Like Viktor Orbán, Trump was perceived by various actors as a tough politician and protagonist of traditional values, nationalism or "freedom of speech". This is why most of the reactions that filled the Slovak information space were in the spirit of celebrating the victory over the corruption of liberalism or progressivism. Nor was there any lack of faith that the American President would actually stop the war in Ukraine and the so-called mutual killing of Slavs.

Trump's success was instrumentalised by Ľuboš Blaha for spreading narratives against the so-called liberal media and politicians or disseminating narratives of Russian propaganda. No wonder, the MEP and deputy chairman of the SMER-SSD party, with his post on the Telegram, merely continued his long-standing communication. Like his party boss Robert Fico, he described Trump's victory as a failure of Soros, progressives or the liberal media (prime minister's post is analysed below).

According to Blaha, they wanted to "destroy Trump, arrest him and eventually shoot him." The MEP compared this Trump story to Robert Fico. Blaha thus remained faithful to the narrative that manipulatively discredits other political views and glorifies his own boss. At the same time, Blaha hopes to stop not the war in Ukraine, but the 'war against Russia'. He thus adds a particular manipulative signature to the hopes of Trump halting the conflict.

György Gyimesi also portrayed the situation in a similar manner. The former MP and current member of the Alliance-Szövetség party accused the so-called liberals and progressives of corrupting polls, media and actors. He also held them responsible for the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump. He called the polls, which claimed the closest election in history, highly manipulative because of the result. He has thus used the cognitive distortion of the result to attack the media.

Minister of the Interior Matúš Šutaj-Eštok (Hlas-SD) spoke manipulatively about the media and agencies that allegedly "artificially protected the vice-president [Kamala Harris]". Milan Uhrík (Republika) was no exception either, whose post reinforced the constructed image of progressive enemies and their defeat in the US. To make matters worse, Uhrík added to his congratulations a reference to the deep state (a conspiracy theory that politics are controlled by mysterious entities from behind the scenes), which is supposed to be "very deeply rooted in America indeed" and will be an obstacle to Trump's planned policy changes.

Since the posts containing narratives about the US presidential election and Donald Trump's victory have been dominant in the Slovak information space in recent weeks, we also looked at them through the analytical tool Gerulata Juno. We used it to analyse the most popular posts on Slovak Facebook featuring the keywords "Trump", "election" or "USA". We excluded from the list those posts that did not contain problematic narratives. We then evaluated the posts based on the total number of interactions (the sum of all reactions, comments, and shares).

The post with the most interactions belongs to the Prime Minister Robert Fico. At a press conference on 6 November, he congratulated the newly elected Donald Trump, presenting the results of the American elections as a defeat for "liberal and progressive ideas". Fico (and other actors in the disinformation ecosystem) have long used similar binary optics that contribute to simplifying and distorting reality. It pits two camps against each other – the preservation of traditional values and the threat of a progressive enemy that is broad enough to accommodate any undesirable element. In this sense, Trump has long resided in the cluster of darlings or idols of the disinformers. Together with other (also notably autocratic) leaders such as V. Orbán or V. Putin, he is presented in the role of a so-called tough politician who will protect society from value decadence. With his continuous rhetoric, Fico proves that he also wants to be part of this company.

The second post was again published by Robert Fico. In the programme Saturday Dialogues (STVR) he first assessed the elections in Georgia. He tried to discredit the negative reactions of some politicians and the media to the victory of the pro-Russian party Georgian Dream. The Slovak Prime Minister sarcastically remarked that in his opinion everyone is now disgruntled because "Soros chose a political party, the NGOs chose a political party, and it lost". Fico thus continued the conspiratorial rhetoric that attributes to fabricated enemies (Soros and NGOs), without evidence, the ability to fundamentally influence elections and political events. In doing so, he has also ignored the allegations of electoral fraud, because of which a section of Georgian society is still protesting for new elections to be called. To make matters worse, Fico compared the situation in Georgia to Trump's victory in the USA – he too was supposed to win, despite the interests of mysterious entities behind the scenes in the political world. The Prime Minister continued with the topic of the war in Ukraine – declaring that if Trump did indeed stop US support for Ukraine, he rejected the idea that the EU would take responsibility for the war. He also went on to discredit the Ukrainian President, who, according to Fico, has no mandate and is afraid of ending the war. This play on words is manipulative and distorts reality – Ukraine is not worried about the end of the war, but about the loss of territory and national sovereignty, which it has defended against Russian aggression for the last few years. An aggression that Fico has, over time, begun to legitimise with his own rhetoric and by adopting the narratives of pro-Kremlin propaganda.

The third post belongs to the SMER - SSD party, which shared the Telegram content of its MEP Ľuboš Blaha. He commented only marginally on the presidential elections in the USA. However, like his party boss Robert Fico, he presented Trump's victory as a defeat for the liberal media. The latter were said to have created the illusion that Kamala Harris would demolish her opponent. It is difficult to determine which polls Blaha is referring to – most of the pre-election polls were quite clearly pointing to very tight margins, so either the MEP is lying and trying to distort reality, or he has access to different polls than the rest of the public. Regardless, Blaha uses these false arguments to discredit the liberal media, which he claims are merely there to “manipulate people” with polls – yet he does not specify either the polls or the specific media he is referring to.

The next post in the list was published by Erik Kaliňák. The MEP from the SMER - SSD party shared the comments of Professor Jeffrey Sachs through the post. This American economist has recently become known, in particular, for his transformation into an increasingly willing disseminator of Russian propaganda. He is also gaining popularity within the disinformation ecosystem in Slovakia. Kaliňák published a recording of a student debate – during which Sachs's belief that the Russian attack on Ukraine was primarily caused by NATO expansion was particularly prominent. It is no coincidence that his statements (e.g. refusing to support Ukraine and calling for servility towards Moscow) and feeding myths about NATO are used by Russian propaganda to legitimise its aggression. Erik Kaliňák is helping to spread these messages to the Slovak public – in the context of Trump's victory, the MEP hopes that Trump will “stop the vile American system aimed at subverting countries”.

The last piece in the list was published by Milan Mazurek. The MEP for the far-right Republika movement used Trump's victory to attack so-called liberal (or progressive) politicians and journalists. According to Mazurek, the latter should have launched a "coordinated cry" and propaganda in response to the US election. The MEP also accuses progressive politicians and the media of hating traditional values and of being warmongers who support the war in Ukraine. This, according to Mazurek, is supposed to be the reason why Kamala Harris's defeat is being taken so hard. The member of the Republika is also hoping that Trump will solve two problems – putting an end to the so-called censorship on social networks and also stopping the "Slavs killing each other" in Ukraine. Mazurek thus merely repeated the central narratives of the Trump campaign and continued to manipulate his audience. When it came to social media, Mazurek referred to censoring national, conservative or traditional voices – he has long denied that restrictions on social media come in the context of hate speech or the spread of disinformation. In the case of the war in Ukraine, he has continuously disseminated narratives of Russian propaganda. Mazurek likes to apply black and white optics, which oversimplify and distort reality – he forgets the complex issues of European security and tribalistically cheers on Trump's peace plan, which so far lacks contours.

China's new strategic partner?

Another topic that shaped the public debate in Slovakia in recent weeks was the government's visit to China. According to the Government’s Office, its aim was to confirm the new quality of bilateral relations, to emphasise the quality of trade and economic relations and to promote investment. At the same time, mutual relations were to be institutionalised to the level of a strategic partnership.

Efforts to establish cordial relations leading to a strategic partnership have come under criticism from NGOs and some media outlets, which have warned of possible security risks and human rights abuses in Chinese provinces. Concerns are particularly linked to the disadvantageous strategic dependence that China is building up with partner states through large investments in key economic sectors.

The government visit to China provoked negative reactions due to its non-standard length, the high number of politicians and representatives of Slovak companies attending, the absence of Slovak journalists, as well as the uncritical rhetoric from the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Juraj Blanár (SMER - SSD). Both of them repeatedly commented on the fact that the strategic partnership with China does not bring security risks and that its criticism is a manifestation of the so-called Sinophobia.

In addition, in a Facebook video, Robert Fico denounced criticism of China for human rights violations, for example in the context of the genocide of the Uighurs in Xinjiang, efforts to suppress freedom of expression in Hong Kong or the annexation of Taiwan. Despite the manifestations or China's assertive policy in the South China Sea, according to Fico, China is the guarantor of stability in the region and in the whole world. A sovereign foreign policy geared towards all four sides of the world, he said, requires non-interference in the internal affairs of the states in question and respect for their forms of government.

This strategy, which is manifested in practice by ignoring the negative elements of undemocratic governance, threatening neighbouring states or supporting aggression, is being applied by the Prime Minister not only towards China, but also towards Russia in the long term. In one of his speeches at the Government’s Office, he said that he rejected both Sinophobia and Russophobia. China, in his words, does not threaten Slovakia in any way, and he himself will do everything to standardise relations with Russia as soon as possible.

An interesting element in the promotion of the government's visit to China was Fico's assessment of the joint discussion on the war in Ukraine. In this context, the Prime Minister in the video uncritically presented the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who reportedly fears "an unmanageable escalation of tensions and the threat of nuclear conflict". In line with the Chinese president, Fico condemned the West's military support for Ukraine. According to Fico, the theme of continued war at any cost resonates in EU rhetoric, while the theme of peace dominates the communication with China. However, despite officially declaring itself neutral, China is siding with Russia, with which it has significantly strengthened relations in recent years, in the case of Russian aggression against Ukraine. There is also information that it has in the past supplied Russia with components which the aggressor has subsequently used for its military expansion.

Servant of Russian propaganda

In addition to the glorification of China, the disinformers also returned to justifying Russian aggression against Ukraine. They were also encouraged by Prime Minister Fico's appearance on the Russian television programme Rossiya-1, hosted by the well-known propagandist Olga Skabeyeva. In the speech, which was subsequently shared on Facebook by Fico himself and the SMER-SSD party, the Slovak Prime Minister spread a large number of deceptive claims. These were mostly attacks on the West and Ukraine, which, according to Fico, promote the escalation of tensions and the continuation of the war. The total escalation of tensions is, according to him, to be achieved by Zelensky's victory plan for Ukraine, which we reported on in a previous report, and which the Prime Minister links to the use of nuclear weapons and medium- and long-range missiles against Russian targets.

In line with Russian propaganda, Fico also spoke about the need for peaceful negotiations with Russia and declared that he was ready to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also said he would consider it an honour to attend the celebrations in Moscow next year to mark the end of World War II and offered Slovak territory for potential peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine.

He reiterated the role of the Red Army in the liberation of the territory of Slovakia from fascist oppression. Later, he also told journalists that he considered it a moral duty to travel officially to Moscow and thank the Red Army. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has hinted that the Slovak Prime Minister might receive an official invitation to attend the Red Square military parade.

Fico's appearance on the propaganda programme Rossiya-1 was strongly criticised by the opposition, the mainstream media, the non-governmental sphere, but also, for example, by the British ambassador to Slovakia, Nigel Baker. According to Fico, these were unjustified comments, describing Baker's response as "unacceptable behaviour" and calling on him to "refrain from similar statements unjustifiably interfering in sovereign Slovak government policy". In fact, the appearance had rather more gravitas than the prime minister admits, as he became the first top politician from an EU state to appear on this state-controlled TV channel since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Several posts by his party colleagues have been published in defence of Fico's actions. For example, Slovak MP Richard Glück (SMER - SSD) published a video on Facebook in which he spoke about the need to respect Slovak national affairs and presented the views of Czech MP Jiří Kobza (SPD), who defended Robert Fico on the ČT24 broadcast.

Similarly, according to MEP Ľuboš Blaha, Fico has shown that he is a statesman who "will not jump as the Western powers whistle." Blaha was referring to an appearance on Russian television, where the Prime Minister was supposed to show wisdom and courage, but also to the government's visit to China. In line with Fico's criticism of British Ambassador Baker, Blaha said it was a breach of diplomatic rules and an embarrassment to Britain, for which the ambassador should be recalled. His Telegram post was also shared by the official SMER - SSD Facebook page.

Hatred of seniors and another assassination attempt?

Domestic topics included mainly posts threatening the possibility of another assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico. In this way, the disinformation scene reacted to two recent events, which it used to spread a narrative of strengthening hatred and tensions in society, but also to distract attention from the deepening government crisis. The first was a Halloween ball at the Bilíkova Gymnasium in Bratislava, where a group of students dressed up as seniors. Their mask included a banner reading "I love Fico", which was seized on by several coalition representatives, who said it was a mockery of the elderly and an abuse of children for opposition propaganda.

The most active on the topic was Minister of the Interior Matúš Šutaj Eštok (Hlas-SD), who spoke about the consequences of the escalation of hostility towards political opponents at opposition rallies. He automatically linked high school students with opposition parties and argued that the increase in tensions, which in the past should have resulted in the assassination attempt on Robert Fico, is reaching schools thanks to the activity of progressive politicians.

Despite the fact that he himself spoke about the need for peace and fair political competition, Šutaj-Eštok spread lies about Progressive Slovakia (PS) endangering people's safety, dragging children and their parents into the political campaign, and campaigning against pensioners. In this case, it is a misleading dramatisation and deliberate linking of the high school event with PS activity. Such a link is fabricated and tends to discredit the opposition party.

Ľuboš Blaha, MEP for SMER - SSD, also threatened another assassination attempt on the Prime Minister. In a Telegram post, which was also shared on the official Facebook page of SMER - SSD, he warned that an armed man was supposed to have been detained during the celebrations of the Carpatho-Dukla operation. It was one of the largest mountain battles during WW2, which was supposed to unite the forces of Slovak rebels and the Soviet army, ended in failure and the retreat of the rebels to guerrilla warfare in 1944. The celebrations took place in Dukla, where according to Blaha, there was "an armed man who hates Robert Fico because he rejects the war against Russia". He automatically used the situation to attack the PS: "This is the result of the work of the PS and the liberal media."

Robert Fico himself told the dubious daily Standard: "We have captured a very militant man who hates me because of my positions on Ukraine." In fact, both politicians must have deliberately distorted reality in their efforts to portray the situation as a life-threatening incident. No assassination attempt was planned at the event, as confirmed by the police. Jana Ligdayová, a spokeswoman for the Košice Regional Police Directorate, said she had only registered a man who had a problem with his documents at the gathering.

The 76-year-old man is the holder of a firearms licence and the owner of the weapon in question, but he did not have the necessary documents with him, for which he was briefly detained and subsequently released after completing the procedures. He was therefore detained on suspicion of having committed an offence in the field of arms and ammunition, not because of his aggressive behaviour or suspicion of attempting to use a weapon at the gathering.

Despite the fact that this is publicly available information, it did not prevent Fico or Blaha from interpreting the events in a way that would confirm their narrative. In his rhetoric, Blaha used inappropriate terms such as "jihad against Smer", opposition "murder machine" or reduction of the political struggle to "apocalyptic proportions".

Project Infosecurity.sk organized by Adapt Institute, which is supported by the Prague office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, continuously monitors the activities of both Slovak and foreign disinformation actors, but focuses mainly on the former. The project activities are built upon daily monitoring of emerging disinformation, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories in the online information space. This approach allows the analysts to identify disinformation posts and narratives that resonated with the public the most, as well as to find out where they originated, and how they spread and evolved on social media. The report takes the form of a bi-weekly summary of arising trends in the spread of malicious information content online. Based on that, Infosecurity.sk can inform the public about emerging and current trends in the field of disinformation, manipulation, and propaganda.