Europe

New Directions in Brussels: From a Geopolitical to an Investment Commission

With the official launch of the European Commission, a new institutional era begins in Brussels. Following protracted negotiations and a highly politicized process initiated by the European elections in June, Ursula von der Leyen’s (VDL) team will commence its work in December. This marks the end of a six-month political stalemate.

New Realities: Europe’s Challenges in 2024

In 2024, the EU faces different internal and geopolitical challenges compared to the start of the last legislative term. A stagnant economy, gains by far-right and populist movements, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and escalating violence in the Middle East are now part of Europe’s new reality. Added to this are expected shifts in transatlantic relations and unresolved trade disputes with China. These new challenges and crises have not only reshaped the political landscape but have also significantly influenced the EU’s most recent priority setting.

Since then, new political priorities have been presented and discussed in Brussels. The political guidelines for the new Commission and the European Council’s new strategic agenda for 2024–2029 have already provided insight into topics that will be crucial for the EU over the next five years: prosperity, security, democracy, competitiveness, and the EU’s strategic autonomy. The announcement of the new portfolio allocations for the VDL Commission on September 17 revealed further details about the priorities and core tasks assigned to the College of Commissioners.

From Geopolitics to Economic Focus: The New Direction of the EU Commission

Five years ago, VDL introduced her vision of a geopolitical Commission. At the time, emphasizing geopolitics as a guiding principle for EU action was seen as a relatively novel concept. Under the geopolitical Commission (2019–2024), the focus lay on initiatives such as Global Gateway, the European Green Deal, and aligning external and internal policies more closely. Today, in an era of growing geopolitical uncertainty and rivalry, VDL continues this approach but shifts the strategic focus toward strengthening the EU’s global economic position and competitiveness.

VDL has placed significant emphasis on leadership and investment to bolster the EU’s assertiveness on the global stage. European security policy is becoming increasingly prominent, and geostrategic interests are being pursued with greater intensity. VDL underscored these priorities in a recent speech to the European Parliament (EP), stating that the EU now requires “massive investments in our security and prosperity (…). This must become an investment Commission.”

Political and Strategic Shifts Under von der Leyen 2.0

Not only the Commission but also the Council’s strategic agenda signals a clear shift in the political priorities of EU member states. Topics like defense, security, migration, and economic competitiveness dominate the agenda, while climate policy is losing prominence. The Green Deal, for example, is not mentioned at all in the Council’s strategic agenda. While climate and environmental issues no longer take center stage, they remain important and are being integrated into other policy areas such as the Clean Industrial Deal. The previous priorities in energy, climate, and natural resource protection are increasingly linked to economic considerations. Similarly, plans for the EU’s future foreign policy are strongly shaped by economic factors.

Reflecting this, the hearings for the designated Commissioners in the EP from November 4 to 12 emphasized topics such as competitiveness, prosperity, innovation, strengthening EU defense capabilities, promoting the EU’s global role, and reducing dependencies. Supporting European industry, another key priority of the new Commission, was also highlighted. Previously, when presenting the strategic responsibilities of the Commissioners VDL had already mentioned the growing importance of cooperation between the various Directorates-General (DGs), with the aim of enabling more coherent policymaking. Under this new structure, each Executive Vice President has their own portfolio with executive powers and is tasked with ensuring coherence between the EU’s internal and external policies. For example, challenges such as global competition are seen as both a necessity for a resilient and strengthened EU and as essential for fostering the EU’s global partnerships.

During the hearings, many of the Commissioner candidates also emphasized the need for closer interinstitutional cooperation and better integration of the various portfolios, particularly for the future design of the EU’s foreign, security, enlargement, development, economic, and trade policies. Kaja Kallas (Estonian Reform Party, Renew Europe), one of the most prominent voices in European foreign policy and the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, also welcomed the Commission's new structure during her EP hearing. This new structure places most aspects of external action, except for defense, under her portfolio. In this context, Kallas stated that she expects closer integration of foreign trade, defense cooperation, diplomacy, and development cooperation. From Germany, prominent liberals such as MP Michael Link have already commented on the new Commission's priorities, highlighting three key aspects: “A genuine economic transformation in Europe, a value- and interest-based alignment of EU funds, and strengthening European security.”

A Turn to the Right in EU Politics?

The outcome of the Commissioners’ hearings came as a surprise to some: for the first time since 1999, no candidate was rejected. Speculation had been rife that controversial nominees such as Italy’s Raffaele Fitto (Fratelli d’Italia, ECR) and Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi (independent/Fidesz-affiliated, Patriots for Europe) might struggle to pass their hearings. However, when MEPs voted on the College of Commissioners in a plenary session in late November, the new Commission secured a majority—though VDL’s team could only be approved or rejected as a whole. While the Parliament ultimately supported VDL’s new team, the voting results revealed significant political tensions: the new Commission received the weakest parliamentary approval since 1993, with 370 votes in favor, 282 against, and 36 abstentions.

The inclusion of right-wing candidates like Raffaele Fitto caused the Commission to lose support from parts of the European Greens and the Social Democrats (S&D). Conversely, VDL secured backing from Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (ECR) and Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance (ECR), despite their opposition to her second term in June. One reason may lie in the fact that both VDL and EPP Chair Manfred Weber have made it clear in recent months that, despite protests from liberals, the S&D, and the Greens, they intend to involve parts of the ECR in the Commission’s work.[1] The EPP's gains in the European elections, coupled with even greater proportional gains by far-right and populist movements, have made it increasingly difficult to maintain the traditional grand coalition[2] of EPP, Renew Europe, and the S&D. This could herald a significant rightward shift in EU politics in the medium term, with potential implications for issues like migration. Observers have pointed to recent efforts by EPP, in alliance with right-wing factions, to weaken anti-deforestation rules—a key component of the Green Deal—as evidence of the EPP and its right-wing allies becoming the new power center in this mandate.

The Long Road to an Investment Commission

Now that the Commission has been confirmed by Parliament, the College of Commissioners can officially begin addressing the EU's most pressing challenges. Kaja Kallas and new Council President António Costa already set a strong tone for supporting Ukraine by traveling to Kyiv immediately after the Commission’s inauguration. However, despite the need for swift action, clarity on the EU’s specific framework for action is not expected until the start of the new year. The inauguration of the Trump administration on January 20, ongoing political uncertainties in France, and the upcoming German federal elections on February 23 will be pivotal events shaping Europe’s future and its political decisions over the next five years.

It also remains to be seen how the Commission’s new strategic approach—emphasizing stronger links between internal and external policy dimensions—will be implemented in practice. With cross-cutting challenges and priorities at the forefront, collaboration between Commissioners and DGs is expected to intensify, potentially leading to more frequent disputes over competencies. Ultimately, the success of the Commission will depend on whether it can achieve the proposed closer integration of existing and new legislative initiatives while striking a balance between a values-based approach, the EU’s self-interests, and a globally partnership-oriented outlook.

The new political and strategic priorities provide an initial indication of which policy areas the Commission and the Council will focus on in their future budget planning. However, financing the EU through the development of the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2035 will also be a significant test for the new Commission in the coming months. The next MFF is intended to be more focused and simpler in structure to strengthen the EU’s resilience and capacity to act, contributing to its transformation into an investment Commission. This goal will be reflected in the next MFF and the development of financial instruments, taking into account key reports and recommendations such as the Draghi Report and the Niinistö Report. Nevertheless, negotiations over the EU’s multi-billion euro budget remain one of the most politically sensitive challenges.

For instance, common debt issuance, as recommended in the Draghi Report, has already been rejected by member states such as Germany and the Netherlands. Looking ahead, the issue of EU enlargement will also become a priority, with a growing geostrategic and timely need to bring countries like Ukraine and the Western Balkan states closer to the EU. Still, it remains to be seen how these integration efforts will be financially supported under the new MFF and what progress candidate countries will make.

The new Commission has commenced its work during a time of significant challenges and change. The transition from a geopolitical to an investment Commission reflects the transformation the EU is undergoing in an increasingly polarized and unpredictable world. Whether it can achieve its ambitious goals of fostering prosperity, security, democracy, and competitiveness while balancing self-interest, a valued-based approach, and global partnerships will be decisive for the EU’s future. One thing is clear: Brussels is entering a new era that not only sets financial priorities but also defines the EU’s political direction for the years to come.

Katharina Osthoff works at FNF Europe as a Senior Policy Advisor, covering international and institutional affairs as well as fundamental rights. Prior to joining the foundation, Ms Osthoff worked as a Policy Advisor for Foreign Affairs at the European Parliament in Brussels and the German Bundestag in Berlin, focusing on Asia and China.

[1] Months before the election, the EPP opened its doors to the right, particularly to parts of the ECR, which it viewed as legitimate and strategic partners—especially on issues such as support for Ukraine.

[2] Over the past years, the EPP has built majorities through cooperation with centrist and established political factions such as the Liberals (Renew Europe) and Social Democrats (S&D).