Munich Security Conference 2025

Europe‘s moment of reckoning

After a week full of controversial statements from the U.S., the discussions at last weekend‘s Munich Security Conference sent shockwaves through Europe. Although the conference was expected to deal with European defence spending and peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, it became fully centred around a rift in the transatlantic relationship.

As political and military leaders headed to Bavaria for last weekend‘s annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), many will have anticipated a meeting under high pressure. Nonetheless, the scenes that would follow over the weekend at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof still sent shockwaves around Europe. Although the conference was expected to deal with European defence spending and peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, it became fully centred around the rift in the transatlantic relationship.

The road to Munich

In the lead-up to the conference, there had already been strong signalling from the American representatives about the changing relationship with Europe. This started when U.S. Vice President JD Vance attended the AI Action Summit in Paris on Tuesday and issued a warning to the EU to go easy on tech regulation. Next up was U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was on Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels to attend meetings with NATO defence ministers and the Ramstein Group, which is responsible for the coordination of military support for Ukraine. At the start of his visit, news emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump had spoken with Vladimir Putin and agreed to begin negotiations about the end of Russia‘s war on Ukraine, without involving Ukraine or the EU. Hegseth complemented this highly controversial move by turning down the prospect of Ukraine‘s NATO membership while calling a return to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is “an unrealistic objective”. By doing so, he gave up two key demands in the upcoming negotiations and put the West in a weak negotiation position before they have even started.

A week of divisive announcements by the new U.S. administration culminated in a bombshell performance by U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Munich. Challenging diplomatic norms not to get involved in other countries‘ domestic politics, Vice President Vance launched a scathing speech in which he accused European leaders of censoring free speech and ignoring voter concerns about migration. Repeatedly questioning whether the US and Europe still had a shared agenda, Vance‘s remarks were initially met with a shocked silence from the conference hall. Never before has an American government official delivered such strong criticism of domestic European politics on a European stage.

European responses

Vance‘s speech did not go unanswered, as several European politicians went off-script and pushed back. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, was the first to respond, calling it “unacceptable” that Vance compared the conditions in Europe with those in some authoritarian regimes. EU High Representative Kallas, who previously warned about appeasing Russia, commented that it was like the US “was trying to pick a fight, and we don‘t want to pick a fight with our friends“. Chair of the European Parliament‘s Security and Defence Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, identified a similar “rift in the transatlantic relationship” and commented that “our liberal world is under extreme threat“. It was widely recognised that the American comments about the state of Europe’s democracy were inappropriate and concerning.

The theme of this year‘s MSC was Multipolarisation, but few would have expected that the main topic of the conference turned out to be the tensions in the transatlantic relationship. With plenty of external threats to talk about, the rift between the US and Europe caught most, if not all attention at the conference. However, as many common threats remain, there is a continued wish from the European side to keep the transatlantic security partnership strong, as Europe is currently not able to take care of its own security interests.

This picture also emerged at the four events that the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) hosted during the MSC together with partners and that focused on the war in Ukraine, hybrid warfare, the race for technology in defence industry, and the role of culture in resistance. There was broad consensus that a strong NATO, robust relations with the EU, and a free Ukraine remain key for security in the Western world. On Russia, there is no possible return to previous political relations and there is an ongoing need to maintain sanctions as long as parts of Ukraine remain occupied. With that in mind, the big question is how Europe will react to Washington‘s new course.

Time for action

One thing is certain, the Trump Administration‘s messaging and its move to open negotiations with Russia has hit a nerve. Following JD Vance‘s speech, High Representative Kallas immediately convened an ad-hoc meeting of the EU‘s foreign ministers to take stock of the new developments, which took place on Sunday. This was followed by an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris on Monday to discuss regional security amid concerns over shifting US priorities and the war in Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also joined the meeting in a show of European unity.

Although European leaders were united in their outrage and quick to get together, the question is if they will finally be able to take the initiative. In the short run, this means that Europe should pick up the signals and get its act together. The US demands for a stronger European role in its own security are not new, nor are they very surprising. Yet, Europe finds itself confronted with a new reality once again and is once again not yet able to take matters into its own hands. This time the signals are delivered more bluntly than ever and Europeans can no longer ignore them.

At the same time, Ukraine and Europe need to make their own case for a place at the negotiation table. In doing so, there should be a strong focus on security guarantees. According to Ukrainian MP and the party leader of the liberal Golos Party Kira Rudik, that is the only way to get to real peace. At the FNF side event “Western Strategy for Ukraine: Ways out of the War” in Munich, it was also widely recognised that Ukraine‘s sovereignty is non-negotiable, meaning it should maintain territorial integrity, an independent foreign policy and a right to self-defence.

Looking further ahead, Europe should accelerate the development of its own defence capabilities. Germany’s Federal Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, announced at the MSC a new initiative proposed by Germany in cooperation with France, Poland, Italy, and Great Britain to develop a roadmap for defence capabilities that the allies agreed upon during the Meeting of NATO’s Defence Ministers. The value of this announcement will be known, as soon as the roadmap is published, but similar initiatives are needed for defence financing and the development of joint defence structures. In order to secure a place at the table, Europe must understand the signals from Washington, overcome differences for unified action on shared European interests, and act with the necessary urgency.