Korean Peninsula

Global Power Struggles: Implications for the Korean Peninsula

Trump's second term has disrupted global politics. Just like in Europe, there are significant concerns in South Korea that Trump might bypass allies – particularly regarding US policy towards North Korea.

On March 11, 2025, the office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) in Seoul and the Leading University Project for Unification Education of Hanyang University explored in a panel discussion the potential impacts of geopolitical shifts on the Korean Peninsula. The discussion was moderated by Professor Yongpyo Hong, former Minister of Unification.

Dr. René Klaff, head of the International Department of FNF, emphasized in his keynote speech that the unpredictability of the new Trump administration makes it even more urgent for democracies worldwide to deepen their partnerships in all areas – including military security.
“Freedom and peace do not fall from the sky – they come at a price and must be defended,” said Dr. Klaff. The interactions between global crises make it even more important for democracies to intensify cooperation. “Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has direct consequences for the Korean Peninsula, just as developments here in Korea affect global security,” he explained.

Particular attention was given to the role of the US as South Korea’s protector. The US has so far been a cornerstone of defense against North Korea. According to Won Gon Park, a professor at Ewha Womans University, Trump places a strong focus on China. By seeking a closer relationship with Russia, Trump might attempt to limit China’s influence by driving wedges into the Russian-Chinese relationship. However, a neutral or even pro-Russian approach would not only concern European partners but also South Korea. 

According to Prof. Park, resolving the nuclear issue under current conditions is much more difficult. North Korea, with the support from Russia, is in a strong position. Although Park expects Trump to launch another diplomatic initiative for North Korea’s denuclearization, a complete abandonment of nuclear weapons is unrealistic. Therefore, it is crucial for South Korea that the US nuclear umbrella remains as strong as possible.

Dr. Ho-ryong Lee from the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) discussed South Korea's security challenges. In particular, the so-called "Korea Passing" is causing concern in Seoul – the risk that Trump might strike bilateral agreements with North Korea without considering South Korean interests. Trump has repeatedly expressed his openness to talks with Kim Jong-un and even suggested that Kim misses him. However, Dr. Lee sees a “small deal” – an agreement with North Korea without full nuclear disarmament – as unlikely.

Dr. Lee believes that the US will continue to need partnerships with South Korea and other Asian states – also to prevent China from becoming too powerful. For South Korea, it is therefore possible and important to continue aligning with international security networks, such as NATO under US leadership. This also means ensuring interoperability of weapon systems.

Dr. Klaff particularly sees many opportunities for cooperation with the EU: Existing partnerships – from cybersecurity to defense collaboration – must be expanded, Dr. Klaff said.

Especially in turbulent times, liberal democracies must stand together – for the rule of law, market economy, and human rights.

*Wencke Rynek studies Korean Studies and Political Science at Eberhard Karls University Tübingen and is currently doing an internship at Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Korea office in Seoul.