Syria

Dramatic Escalation of Violence in Syria Three Months After the Fall of the Assad Regime

Almost exactly three months after the fall of the Assad regime, violence in Syria has escalated dramatically. Many observers were initially surprised in December by the relatively calm transition and the absence—or at least limited extent—of the widely feared Islamist violence and revenge attacks against Syria’s many religious and ethnic minorities. However, since March 6, the international community has been confronted with shocking reports and horrifying images.

According to media reports, up to 1,000 civilians - most of them from the Alawite minority, including many women and children - were killed during the suppression of an uprising by former Assad regime units against the new leadership. The military forces of the interim Syrian government under Acting President Al-Sharaa, as well as allied Islamist militias, are being accused of carrying out the killings.

Jörg Dehnert, Director of the Regional Office for the Middle East and North Africa, spoke about these dramatic developments with Rafif Jouejati, Vice President of the Syrian Liberal Party (AHRAR) and President of the Foundation to Restore Equality and Education in Syria (FREE-Syria).

The international community is shocked by recent reports of massacres targeting civilians, particularly members of the Alawite community. The exact events remain unclear, with conflicting narratives and competing accusations. How do you assess the situation?

The situation is marked by widespread disinformation, which makes objective assessment extremely difficult. My assessment, based on reports from activists and monitoring of news, is that interim government’s defense forces were conducting security operations to seize illegal weapons. During these operations, clashes broke out with so-called spoilers of the former regime - remnants of the Assad loyalists. Both sides, former regime supporters and government security units, bear responsibility for civilian casualties. The violence is by no means directed exclusively against Alawites. All extrajudicial killings must be clearly condemned and brought to justice. The speech given by Acting President Ahmad Al-Sharaa on March 8 was an important signal - but it must now be followed by concrete and decisive action.

Many had expected this kind of violence already back in December, right after the fall of the Assad regime. Now it seems to have erupted with delay. Are we on the brink of further escalation, possibly even a civil war? Could Syria’s unity be at risk? How is society responding?

If the current crisis is not defused quickly, the risk of armed conflict - and even civil war - is real. However, we are seeing a strong response from civil society: public protests, official statements, and calls for independent investigations are growing. One of the key challenges remains the lack of a transitional justice process—this must now become an urgent priority.

According to a UNHCR survey, around 40% of Syrian refugees in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan were planning to return. Could the recent wave of violence undermine this trend? What role can neighboring countries play in supporting stability?

Many neighboring countries have already voiced their support for the interim government. What is needed now are concrete actions: financial assistance, fulfillment of previous aid pledges, and ideally, a relaxation of economic sanctions. Refugees will only return if they see real prospects for rebuilding their lives.

To put it bluntly: It’s about the money. People need shelter, jobs, and income—only then can they contribute to reconstruction. Poverty and hunger, on the other hand, are a recipe for renewed instability.

Some suspect that external actors such as Iran and Russia are exploiting the unrest to regain influence in Syria. How significant is their role?

External powers like Iran, Russia, and also Israel are contributing to Syria’s instability. While some actors are fueling the conflict through arms deliveries and disinformation, others - like Israel - are further aggravating the situation through military incursions and occupation of Syrian territory, sometimes under the pretext of protecting minorities. These actions must end. The international community must take a firmer stance in defending international law and opposing all forms of foreign interference. Israel has left Syria essentially defenseless, while the country is now facing armed groups whose agendas stand in stark contrast to the vision of a free and democratic future.

What gives us hope, however, is the unprecedented rise of Syrian civil society. For the first time in more than five decades, people are publicly and boldly calling for an inclusive, democratic state. Across the country, citizens are demanding an end to sectarianism and a return to the rule of law. This movement deserves stronger international support. Financial commitments must be honored, and targeted resources must be provided to empower civil society. A major step in this direction would be lifting the sanctions - which currently affect civilians more than anyone else.