Azerbaijan

Early election in Azerbaijan

Early election in Azerbaijan: End of Council of Europe membership?

Azerbaijan held an early parliamentary election on September 1. It was the second snap election this year ahead of COP29, which Azerbaijan hosts in mid-November. The country had a snap presidential election this year on February 7. The amendments made to the Constitution in 2016 allow the President to hold snap elections without consultation with the opposition or political parties. Since this amendment, all presidential and parliamentary elections have been held before their terms end.

According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), 88 out of 125 MPs remained in their seats, and seven former MPs returned to the parliament. Apart from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, which won 68 seats, ten other parties are now represented by 13 MPs, and only one of them is from an opposition party. The other 44 MPs are considered independent, but all of them support the government with both hands.

Many violations

Opposition parties approached the election in different ways. The more robust opposition, the Popular Front Party, did not participate in the election. It declared a boycott because of preelection conditions, the inexistence of freedom of assembly, and the imprisonment of dozens of activists and journalists. But many other opposition parties, including Musavat and REAL, took part in the elections with limited candidates, 25 and 12 each. Only REAL got one seat.

The only reliable observation mission, the International Election Observation Mission (IEOM) of OSCE ODIHR and OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, evaluated the election as devoid of real competition amid diminishing respect for fundamental freedoms.[1] The counting was assessed negatively by 45 percent of the 92 polling stations observed by the IEOM.

Local independent journalists and activists revealed many violations during the voting process. One of them is the so-called carousel: the same people repeatedly vote in different polling stations.[2] However, more commonly, election rules were violated by throwing ballots into the boxes, which in many cases was recorded on the CEC's online surveillance cameras at the precinct.[3] Also, in many cases, polling station commission members prepared the ballots to favor particular candidates in advance[4], or after casting votes, commissions did not provide the protocols to the candidates' representatives.[5]

Poor election campaign with a tiny exception

The election campaign was very poor. We did not observe many meetings or rallies. Also, public TV did not organize debates between political parties and candidates.

However, there was an exception in the Neftchala district, which is located in the southeast of the country on the shore of the Caspian Sea. Vafa Naghiyeva, a civic activist and municipality  member of one of the villages, also ran as an independent candidate in the 70th constituency. Dozens of activists from the capital helped her with the campaign and observation.[6]  She visited villages and settlements and got an actual 3122 votes , which was enough to win despite the poor participation of voters[7]. But she was missing from the government's "wish list" and could not sit in parliament. In other words, official results are manipulated in favor of another candidate from the Civic Solidarity Party, which artificially plays an opposition role in the parliament. In the previous election, Sabir Rustamkhanli, a writer and the chairman of CSP, got a seat in this district. This time his wife – Tanzila Rustamkhanli.

EU and Germany’s impact

The European Union seemed to have no impact on Azerbaijan's election process. Azerbaijan is one of the European Union's leading energy partners. In 2023, Azerbaijan exported $20 billion of crude oil and natural gas to EU countries. Germany has an important place in these relations. The trade turnover between the two countries increased by 45 percent compared to 2022, reaching $1.8 billion in 2023. Azerbaijan sold more crude oil to Germany in 2023 and imported more vehicles, machinery, and mechanical appliances.

More than 180 German companies are operating in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani government is trying to maintain good relations with Germany, especially against damaged ties with France. President Aliyev met with Chancellor Scholz at the 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue held this April in Berlin. They discussed peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia and issues related to COP29. Also, on the eve of this visit of President Aliyev, Gubad Ibadoglu was released under house arrest.

However, the Azerbaijani government only wishes to see Germany and the EU as economic partners. President Aliyev does not want to become a member of the EU. Since 2015, negotiations have been underway to renew the expired partnership agreement between Azerbaijan and the European Union. According to some reports, the delay in signing the deal is due to disagreements over human rights and free trade issues.

End of Council of Europe membership?

The government of Azerbaijan decisively disclaims policies related to democracy and human rights and shrinking space for civil society. Starting from 2013-2014, the government limited freedom of association, assembly, and access to international funding for non-profit organizations. Because of the recent repression wave, the Parliamentary Assembly Council of Europe has not ratified the credentials of Azerbaijan's parliamentary delegation on January 25, 2024.[8]The adopted resolution[9] of PACE initiated by German MP Frank Schwabe is also based on the fact that despite commitments, the government of Azerbaijan did not invite PACE to observe the presidential election on February 7, 2024. And once again, the government did not invite PACE to observe the parliamentary election. Instead, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan stated that the PACE members voting for the mentioned resolution are persona non grata for the country.[10]

Under these circumstances, PACE will likely not ratify the credentials of Azerbaijan's parliamentary delegation again until next January. After that, the issue of Azerbaijan's leaving the Council of Europe may arise, which could end the country's European integration policy.

Sustainable crackdowns

Over the last year, many civil society representatives, journalists, and activists have been imprisoned based on politically motivated charges. A well-known academician and professor, Gubad Ibadoghlu, was released in April after nine months of detention to home arrest but still cannot leave the country. Another civil society representative election expert and Council of Europe Vaclav Havel Human Rights award winner, Anar Mammadli, was detained the same month. Before him, from November 2023 to June 2024, independent media outlets Abzas Media, Channel 13, and Toplum TV were attacked, and their leaders and journalists were imprisoned . Currently, many domestic human rights defenders believe that the overall number of political prisoners is approximately 300[11]The election results show that the political environment will not change and will remain severe and repressive.

[1] https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/f/4/575497.pdf

[2] https://youtu.be/zhzyC4Gp7xc; https://youtu.be/Sq8BQ2pEht0

[3] https://youtu.be/RbWgOqW-1uc

[4] https://www.youtube.com/live/FBmHeIE5V1s

[5] https://youtu.be/gxPuYza1VDw

[6] https://youtu.be/SfuufyX0nYc

[7] https://www.infocenter.gov.az/archive/MilliMeclis2024.aspx?i=2&dsk=70

[8] https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/pace-resolves-not-to-ratify-the-cre…-

[9] https://pace.coe.int/en/files/33333/html

[10] https://turan.az/en/difficult-question/the-persona-non-grata-war-betwee…

[11] https://turan.az/en/politics/number-of-political-prisoners-in-azerbaija…