Lebanon
Interview on the election of Joseph Aoun as the new Lebanese president
Lebanon has a new head of state: In a sometimes heated session, the parliament in Beirut elected former army chief General Joseph Aoun as president of the small Mediterranean nation yesterday afternoon, with over 75% of the votes in the second round of voting. Since the end of former President Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022—despite sharing the same surname, the two are not related—the parliament had failed in twelve attempts to elect a successor.
We spoke with Ralf Erbel to discuss the background, significance and potential implications of this election. Mr. Erbel served as project director for the foundation’s Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq office from 2008 to 2014 and currently heads the foundation’s unit for MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Mr. Erbel, after years in which Lebanon has mainly been in the headlines for crises and catastrophes, it seems the political stalemate has finally been broken. How do you assess the election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon?
The election of Joseph Aoun is unequivocally good news - a glimmer of hope for Lebanon and its international partners. Following the ceasefire agreement reached in late November, this election marks another crucial step towards restarting the political process. President Aoun’s immediate task will be to consult with parliament and to appoint a majority-backed prime minister capable of swiftly forming a competent and effective government.
Aoun's inaugural speech in parliament yesterday will likely be remembered as a historic moment in Lebanon's history. While controversial issues in Lebanese politics are often defused or delayed through vague and often fragile compromises, Aoun chose a different path. With a remarkable clarity that evoked both disbelief and spontaneous hope among many Lebanese, he outlined the political principles and objectives of his presidency. These range from restoring the state’s monopoly on the use of force to advancing judicial independence, ensuring a free economy and steering the country towards economic recovery.
The success in finally electing a president after twelve failed attempts since October 2022 can be attributed largely to changes in the national and regional context: the devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and significant international pressure—most notably from the United States, coupled with France’s intense diplomacy and the involvement of influential Gulf states. Lebanon needs international partners and support to push forward reconstruction and economic development.
In this deeply divided nation, Joseph Aoun, coming from the military rather than politics, is known for his integrity. As army chief, he maintained strong ties with the United States, which has provided military aid to Lebanon’s armed forces for years.
Aoun has assumed office as a compromise candidate in a country under a state of emergency: vast areas of southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut are in ruins. Implementing the steps outlined in the temporary ceasefire agreement is urgent. Aoun’s personal connection to southern Lebanon, his birthplace, is likely to enhance his understanding of the situation on the ground.
The election process itself was revealing. While Aoun fell short of the required two-thirds majority in the first round, he secured it in the second round - due then in part to the support of Shia parties Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, who had not granted him their vote in the first round. According to media reports, Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad stated that both parties decided to support Aoun in the second round to ensure “national consensus.”
A former army chief as president—doesn’t this raise concerns about potential military interference in politics?
Your concern is understandable, especially given the experiences of other countries that have suffered under military dictatorships or repressive regimes. However, in Lebanon’s case, I do not currently see such a risk.
The Lebanese army enjoys significant public trust and is one of the few national institutions that garners widespread support. It has played a stabilizing role during crises in recent years and is traditionally viewed as a non-sectarian entity. Strengthening the army is strategically vital and may even be a prerequisite for disarming Hezbollah and reestablishing the state’s monopoly on the use of force.
Joseph Aoun is not the first Lebanese president to come from the military. Several of his predecessors followed the same path. Although the Lebanese constitution (Article 49) prohibits a direct transition from the military to the presidency, Aoun secured the necessary two-thirds majority in the second round to bypass this restriction. Still, such exceptions should not become the norm.
What role does the president play in Lebanon, and what powers does he hold?
In Lebanon, there is a notable gap between the often-overstated public perception of the presidency and its actual constitutional authority. This discrepancy likely stems from Lebanon’s history as a presidential republic before constitutional reforms following the Taef peace agreement that ended the civil war in 1990.
Today, the president’s role is primarily ceremonial and mediatory, while executive power resides largely with the prime minister and the cabinet. Nonetheless, the presidency remains influential. In this multi-religious country, the president is tasked with maintaining the delicate balance between sectarian groups and fostering political consensus. The president serves a six-year term without the possibility of reelection.
A defining feature of Lebanon’s political system is its confessional power-sharing arrangement: under the 1943 National Pact, the president is always a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim. For the Christian community, the presidency holds profound historical significance and is often seen as a safeguard of their role in Lebanon.
What lies ahead for Lebanon, and how can Germany contribute?
Lebanon is at a critical juncture, with a historic opportunity to set the stage for a better future after years of crises and disasters. In his inaugural address, President Joseph Aoun articulated a new vision for Lebanon, declaring a fresh phase in the country’s history. Notably, he announced that Lebanon would adopt a policy of positive neutrality and enforce the state’s monopoly on the use of force. He also prioritized reconstruction after the devastation caused by the war with Israel as a national responsibility.
Germany and Europe should seize this historic moment to support Lebanon in successfully transitioning to a brighter future. The coming months will be crucial. International assistance must be swift and effective to capitalize on this window of opportunity, dispel the narrative of a failing state, and help Lebanon break free from the cycle of conflict and instability.