European Union

Polish EU Council Presidency: A Turning Point for Europe?

With the handover of the EU Council Presidency from Hungary to Poland, the European Union is entering a decisive phase. While Budapest’s presidency was marked by controversial decisions and disappointed expectations, Warsaw is setting clear priorities in the areas of security and economic resilience. Amidst geopolitical tensions and internal crises, Poland’s leadership is considered crucial for the future of the EU.

The change in the EU Council Presidency is usually not an event that attracts significant attention. However, the most recent handover at the beginning of this year was accompanied by unprecedented interest and high expectations. It has been a long time since a change in the presidency has been as controversial as the one that took place a few days ago.

Poland and Hungary, which were close allies until the year before last, now represent, in many ways, the greatest political contrasts. After six months of criticism that Viktor Orbán was instrumentalizing the presidency for his own purposes, Poland now assumes this position. The country has thus reached a status that should enable it to play a real leadership role—one whose impact could extend far beyond its six-month mandate.

EU Under Orbán: Numerous Self-Proclaimed “Peace Missions”

Hungary´s 2024 EU Council Presidency, which lasted from July to December, was characterized by a mix of ambitious goals and controversial decisions. Guided by the Trump-inspired slogan “Make Europe Great Again,” Hungary led the presidency during a transitional period marked by the European elections, the establishment of a new Parliament, and a new Commission. During this transitional period, Budapest outlined seven key priorities: promoting the EU’s competitiveness, strengthening defence, addressing demographic challenges and migration issues, consulting on the reform of cohesion and agricultural policies, and advancing EU enlargement, particularly concerning the Western Balkans.

Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, undertook an unexpectedly high number of diplomatic trips, always with a political agenda in hand. These missions served not only to promote Hungarian’s government interests, but also to stage Orbán as a global peacemaker. After his party’s disappointing result in the European elections, in which Fidesz won just under 45 percent of the vote, its worst result ever, Orbán used these trips to profile himself on the world political stage. During one of his first “peace missions” after assuming the presidency, he visited the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, and China within just one week. In the final weeks of the presidency, Orbán continued his diplomatic efforts, meeting figures such as Pope Francis, Giorgia Meloni, and Donald Trump, while more clearly separating his EU role from his national one.

Ambitious Priorities, Uncertain Results

The implementation of Hungary’s priorities fell short of expectations. In economic policy, Hungary sought a new European competitiveness agreement to strengthen the Union’s economic resilience. Although the Budapest Declaration adopted in October emphasized the need for innovation and investment, it did not lead to concrete measures or legislative progress. On defence policy, Hungary aimed for closer cooperation with NATO and sought to bolster European defence capabilities amidst geopolitical tensions. However, progress was hampered by internal political disagreements within the EU and differing priorities among member states. No concrete reforms or new agreements materialized.

Hungary’s presidency also focused on enlargement policy and organized an EU-Western Balkans Summit to deepen political ties and cooperation with the Western Balkan countries. While the summit summarized key points of enlargement policy, it failed to generate new momentum. It highlighted the importance of a coherent and merit-based enlargement strategy and reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to integrating the Western Balkan countries as a geostrategic investment in stability and security in Europe. A partial success of the Hungarian Presidency was its support for Romania and Bulgaria’s accession to the Schengen Area. However, Hungary had to accept Austria’s blockade of the two countries’ accession, tempering the anticipated progress. On migration, Budapest pursued stricter EU measures, such as the directive against aiding illegal entry into the EU. Hungary’s proposed migration policy faced criticism for disregarding human rights standards and focusing more on border controls than comprehensive solutions.

On agricultural policy, Hungary sought to promote a producer-oriented approach within the EU. There was much discussion about sustainability and food security, but the hoped-for progress was lacking. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) remains marked by internal differences and political disputes within the Union. While some member states push for stricter environmental regulations and sustainable farming practices, others resist these changes due to concerns about their impact on productivity and farm incomes.

Another ambitious goal of the Hungarian presidency was to increase transparency in the use of EU funds, particularly regarding the Erasmus program and support for Hungarian universities. However, corresponding legislative changes were not implemented as expected. The European Commission identified a total of twelve deficiencies that the Hungarian government needed to address. Additionally, Hungary had not fully met the rule-of-law requirements, resulting in the freezing of cohesion and recovery funds. Hungary also permanently lost €1.04 billion from the 2022’s frozen funds, which further strained the presidency’s budget.

In summary, while Hungary’s Presidency pursued ambitious goals, many individual projects were not implemented in a structured manner. Internal tensions within the EU and Hungary’s political situation hindered progress. Despite efforts to emphasize competitiveness, defence, and enlargement policy, these initiatives were often overshadowed by controversial migration policies and unresolved rule of law issues. The transfer of the presidency to Poland now presents an opportunity to address these deficits and pursue a more coherent EU policy.

Poland as a Beacon of Hope in Crisis Mode

At a time of unprecedented crises that heavily strain the unity and competitiveness of the European Union, Poland assumes the presidency under relatively favourable conditions. Unlike many neighbouring countries, Poland benefits from a stable, pro-Western government, which is leading the country into a phase of economic and political growth.

However, the challenges facing the EU extend beyond the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the migration crisis. Additional stress factors include Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the rise of populist and nationalist movements, economic downturns, and the lack of harmony in the Franco-German tandem. Against this backdrop, expectations for Poland’s Presidency are high.

Poland itself faces domestic challenges. The presidential elections in May could significantly shape the country’s political future. The conflict between the government under Donald Tusk (Civic Coalition) and President Andrzej Duda, who is close to the national-populist opposition PiS, is currently hindering important reforms. Nevertheless, there is cross-party consensus on the threats from the East and the necessity of strengthening Poland’s and the EU’s defence capabilities.

Poland’s Priorities in the EU Council Presidency

Given the geopolitical challenges and unstable situations in several EU member states, Poland’s Presidency will play a central role in securing and strengthening the EU’s capacity to act. It is therefore not surprising that EU security policy has been defined as the top priority. Under the motto “Security, Europe!” and with a logo reminiscent of the anti-communist movement Solidarność, Poland is sending a strong signal. As it did 45 years ago, the country aims to be the initiator and leader of the transformation towards a democratic Europe free from Russian influence.

Under the guiding theme of “security,” Warsaw is focusing on seven key topics that reflect both the geopolitical situation and the EU’s internal challenges. Defence and security are a primary focus. In light of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Poland positions itself as an advocate of closer cooperation with and within NATO. The country relies on partnerships with the United States, the United Kingdom, and South Korea to strengthen the EU’s defence capabilities. Poland’s geographic location on the EU’s eastern border makes this issue particularly urgent. Poland’s primary goal, in cooperation with the Baltic States, is the construction of the so-called East Shield—a state-of-the-art complex of fortifications along the eastern border with Belarus and Russia, securing not only national borders but also those of the EU and NATO. Another concrete goal is to increase defence spending across the EU (Poland alone plans to spend nearly five percent of its GDP on defence this year, more than any other NATO member) and establish joint ammunition production within the EU to make the Union more autonomous, capable, and independent from third countries.

Border security is another important focus. Poland calls for more effective securing of the EU´s external borders, particularly concerning migration routes through Eastern Europe, with the Polish-Belarusian border being a hotspot for years. This aims not only to curb illegal migration but also to contribute to the Union’s internal security and stability. Digital security is another priority. Poland advocates for the creation of shared robust infrastructures to protect the EU from disinformation and external interference. The threat of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns from outside poses a growing challenge.

Economic security is another focus area. Poland aims on extending of the the single market and cutting red tape. As one of the most economically dynamic countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland emphasizes the importance of economic resilience for a stable and competitive Union. The term “deregulation” is highlighted repeatedly in this context. On energy security, Poland prioritizes diversifying energy sources and expanding renewable energy to promote the EU’s strategic independence. Given Poland’s experience in reducing dependence on Russian energy supplies, this issue is of special importance.

Since the primary sector still plays an important role in Poland, another priority is a competitive and resilient European agriculture. In times of global uncertainties, Poland emphasizes the importance of a strengthened Common Agricultural Policy to sustainably secure food supply in the Union and maintain the competitiveness of European agriculture. Lastly, but by no means of lesser importance, is health security. The focus will be on enhancing the EU's preparedness for future epidemics and crises. This includes coordinating the production of medicines within the EU and advancing the digitization of healthcare.

In summary, the transfer of the EU Council Presidency from Hungary to Poland marks a significant turning point in European politics. While Hungary drew attention over the past six months due to Orbán’s controversial decisions and vague results, the next six months with Poland at the helm are filled with high hopes. Poland’s clear priorities on security, economic resilience, and border protection reflect the EU’s current challenges. By prioritizing NATO cooperation, combating disinformation, and fostering a competitive economy, Poland has the potential to offer the leadership necessary to restore the EU's unity and ability to act effectively.