Indian General Elections 2024

'Modi wave’ partially ebbs: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) triumphs in Indian General Elections 2024

The failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win a clear majority (272 out of 543 parliamentary seats) in the Indian General Elections 2024 is a psephological surprise, with most political experts and exit polls having predicted a huge victory. Its main rival, the Indian National Congress (Congress) did very well, almost doubling its numerical strength in the lower house of parliament. The 'mother of all elections', held in the shadow of a global narrative of democratic backsliding and electoral autocracy in India, created a legitimacy crisis and trust deficit in the electoral exercise. The political discourse after the grand win of BJP in 2014 had become quite vitiated as the BJP's opposing parties raised questions around the credibility of the Election Commission of India (ECI) and reliability of Electronic Voting Machines in precisely counting votes.

The elections saw BJP-marshalled right-wing parties (the NDA) advocating for the primacy of Hindus, whilst the Congress-led centrist-left alliance (INDIA) campaigned for saving the Indian constitution and democracy,  both sides promising enhanced welfarism and freebies. Campaigns soon turned divisive and communal, however, as competing allies resorted to fear mongering and dog whistling while campaigning in their constituencies along caste/ religious lines for the polarization of votes. While the Modi wave faltered in reclaiming the ‘will of the majority’ due to moderate anti-incumbency sentiments against it, the ECI emerged strongly, earning public trust and confidence.

The decoding of the election outcome in this article will focus on election issues, determinants of the mandate, its implications on electoral politics, liberal values and the need for an alternative global view of democracy.    

Deciphering the national verdict

The BJP’s election campaign centered on ‘Viksit Bharat Vision’ (developed India by 2047) and ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ (the empowerment of youth and women, welfare of farmers and upliftment of marginalized communities). It counted on milestones crossed in its Hindutva-driven march such as the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, revocation of Article 370 (which had conferred special status to Jammu and Kashmir) and the Citizenship Amendment Act. The Congress focused on ‘Paanch Nyay’ (five pillars of justice), namely justice to youth, farmers, women, laborers and opportunities as per their percentage of the population. It raised issues of unemployment, price rise, agrarian distress, legal guarantee of MSP and discrepancies in electoral bonds as a corruption issue.

The results show that the BJP’s vision and work did not resonate uniformly with voters as it won only 240 seats, a steep loss of 63 seats since 2019, with a nominal fall of around one percent in its vote share. It lost 29 seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), as the India bloc benefited by communicating the implications of the BJP's coming to power, such as the scrapping of existing reservations (affirmative action) for backward caste and communities; a strong polarization of Muslim votes also helped. It lost significant seats in Maharashtra because of visibly “unethical” politics, in Rajasthan and Haryana over the large-scale resentment of dominant castes and in West Bengal owing to the domineering stature of the latter's state leadership. It made spectacular electoral gains in Odisha but could not expand its footprint in southern India.  

Result summary 2024

Seats Won 2024

BJP              240

Congress     99

Others         204

Seats changed since 2019

BJP             -63

Congress    +47

Others        +16

Vote Share 2024

BJP              36

Congress     21

Others          42

Vote Share Change Since 2019

BJP             -1

Congress    +2

Others        -1

  Source: Election Commission of India.                                         Total Seats: 543

The Congress made an impressive resurgence by winning 47 more seats and gaining two percent of the vote share, but the INDIA bloc fell short by 38 seats in staking a claim to form the next government.  Moves aimed at its revival, involving the election of Mallikarjun Kharge as party president and the twin ‘Bharat Jodo Yatras’ (walkathons), reversed its declining traction, but it was not enough to numerically vanquish the BJP. The fate of regional parties was a mixed bag, as they registered impressive wins in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, UP, and Bengal, but fared very poorly in Delhi, Telangana, and Odisha. 

Key determinants of the mandate

Reasons for the feebler endorsement of the NDA and loss of the INDIA bloc are manifold, but they could be reduced to four points. First, the Modi wave, a political phenomenon that scripted several electoral victories on the basis of his leadership charisma, retained its winning quotient, but encountered overwhelming undercurrents in some states. The presidentialization of the election and failure of the opposition alliance to appoint a PM candidate gave the NDA a national hat trick.

Second, the BJP created a patron and client relationship that provided state benefits to citizens in return for valid votes in elections. Though the BJP emerged the largest party, it did not receive the expected quid pro quo in votes to win a full majority. It paid a heavy price for having taken for granted its Hindutva support base and welfare scheme beneficiaries. 

Third, the INDIA bloc’s ‘Index of Opposition Unity’ was strong, which, in tandem with the right caste arithmetic and alliance chemistry, resulted in the maximization of vote transfer at ground zero. The Congress alliance succeeded in weaving a winning narrative, but its political impact was not uniform across all states, leaving it unable to cross the electoral threshold required for making a full political comeback.

Finally, the inherited leadership of Rahul Gandhi (RG) remained a tacit liability as it failed twice to help win the national elections, but the Congress reposed faith in him. His personality and traits countered the cynicism associated with his dynastic ascent, but the PM candidature of RG seemed not acceptable to a large section of the electorate.  

Political implications for democracy and liberal values

The elections mandate the saffron party to extend an olive branch to opposition parties for building a constructive consensus, even as it attempts to bolster its global public perception. The electoral space of non-BJP parties has tremendously increased, and they can pull off a rebound in national elections 2029 by reinventing/ rewriting their political playbook for a new aspirational India. The election results also serve to expand the scope of liberal thought within civil society and institutions in India. Furthermore, the coalition government and the presence of robust opposition in the parliament contribute significantly to the plurality of voices both in the parliament and in public discourse. It also helps promote democratic institutions in the country.

The urgent tasks cut out for the BJP are to look deeper into the global discourse of India's moves towards becoming an illiberal democracy, address imperfections and actively engage in promoting democracy in foreign policy. It needs to frame a global south alternative to the Western worldview of democracy with indigenous tools to measure multiculturalism, autonomy of state institutions, and political dissent. The idea of a perfect democracy is utopian, as most democratic countries have varying proportions of imperfections; India needs to strive hard for finding a place in the sun as a democracy with the least aberrations.