US Elections

An opportunity for the EU!

The election of Donald Trump as US president is a critical moment for the European Union to rethink its global strategy and internal cohesion. Trump's ‘America First’ agenda during his first term has revealed the limitations of relying on US leadership, especially in areas such as climate change, trade, defence, global public health and multilateralism. Now that he is back in power, Europe has a new window of opportunity to accelerate its march towards strategic autonomy and strengthen its global influence. No wonder several EU high-flyers see advantages in Trump’s election. It seems an uncomfortable truth, but the better prepared the EU is to step up to independent decision-making in case that the United States are going to be ruled in an increasingly authoritarian way and might accelerate confrontation scenarios in international trade, the more it can increase its own global influence and deepen its relations with partners that are at risk of being let down by the US. Here is a 3-part overview on the spaces that the Trump government is likely to leave for the EU to fill with strategic decision-making in its very own interest:

1. Less need for alignment with the US in foreign policy

Under Trump’s past presidency, the US has withdrawn from key international agreements from the Paris Agreement to the Iran Nuclear Deal, and pursued trade policies that often put the EU at odds with its historical ally. The unpredictability of US foreign policy highlighted Europe's vulnerability to external power shifts. For the EU, Trump's re-election should act as a catalyst to deepen inner integration and pursue a more coherent, independent foreign policy. This is necessary to protect the European way of life, which may perhaps not enamour the likes of Elon Musk, but is definitely worth defending. It is high time for the EU to complete the single market in financial service and capital, for example, and to decrease administrative hurdles and the plethora of reporting obligations. While the EU has already taken steps towards a more unified defence strategy, the need for much greater action in this area, as well as in other important fields such as diplomacy and trade, remains urgent. The EU needs to prepare itself for a long solitary game: things are unlikely to go back to normal if the world sits out the upcoming four years of Trumpist rule: Trump’s concentrated power, immunity and disruptive decision-making are likely to distort the US governmental system for some years to come, possibly even leading to further “problematic” follow-up US presidencies. Europe must thus conclude that it will be majorly left to its own devices for several years. This, in turn, should be seen as a chance, and boost Europe’s self-confidence to secure its interests on the world stage. Partners that rely on the EU are, in fact, eager to see the EU step up. This goes particularly for the case of Ukraine, where crucial decisions on defence aid need to be made, and for the enlargement process.

2. Integrating EU ‘strategic autonomy’ with long-term visions of international partnership

The concept of ‘strategic autonomy’ has gained ground in EU discussions and a second term for Trump could force the Union to accelerate its implementation. This means, among other things, reducing defence dependency on the US through NATO, and ensuring that Europe has the political and economic tools to manage crises on its own. A united EU would foster a balanced approach to global governance, while continuing to promote a rules-based international order. Collaboration in defence with the UK, in particular, could reignite closer alignment across the greater European region as a larger spatial unit in global geopolitics. Ultimately, it may lead to better collaboration between the EU and UK in other important areas, such as trade. Thinking even further ahead, an enhanced European investment in diversified partnerships could, in the long-term, help stimulate a gradual reorganisation of the multilateral global order. The EU should focus on strong partnerships with regions that, over the coming decades, are going to be the most populous, and demographically the youngest and most dynamic, especially South- and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Latin America. Similarly, the previous Trump-administration was less inclined than either President Obama or President Biden to actively forge working alliances with democratic countries across the globe, or in promoting global public health policies. It is in Europe’s interest that such alliances are effective, and playing the leading role in this should become an ever more important goal of its foreign policy. Wherever the Trump administration disengages in these regions, the EU should quickly fill in partnership gaps, if the terms of partnership are promising.

3. Approach the transatlantic relationship with a clear priority on resilience

Trump's protectionist trade policies, including announced tariffs on European products, have underlined the need for the EU to diversify its economic and trade relations. While the EU has a strong trade network, the challenge remains to conclude agreements that serve the EU's interests while minimising the risks of aggressive economic tactics from the US. With Trump back in the White House, the EU would be wise to forge new trade partnerships especially with other democratic nations, and strengthen its single market to keep Europe economically resilient in an increasingly fragmented global economy. Europe needs to be prepared that the transatlantic relationship is going to become much more complicated through trade issues alone; more and more voices in Brussels and single EU Member States consider a trade war created by new US tariffs on EU imports to be highly likely. Europe, including the UK, for example, have to prepare to have their markets flooded by cheap Chinese products as the on-going trade war between the US and China deepens. Harsher regulations on Chinese imports will be necessary, which, in turn, is going to deepen the political divide with China as well. China readily frames alignment in the Western world as a “US-led conspiracy” with the aim to break China’s power. 

The election of Trump thus presents challenges for Europe’s resilience, but also an opportunity for the EU to shape its relations with the US in a different way than the traditional – and much criticised, particularly in the US – dependency, instead working towards a more equal partnership. The EU can shift the foundation of its ties with the US more to a mutual recognition of each other's sovereignty and shared democratic values, each defending its own economic interests. This might even help both sides focus more effectively on selective key global issues where consensus seems attainable, without the burden of unresolved loyalties. And there are plenty of issues where the EU can align itself with Trump, above all in simplification (decreasing administrative hurdles) and in working on being less reliant on China. This is important, since the transatlantic alliance will remain a cornerstone of European foreign policy in the long term. Wherever opportunities of alignment can be found, these should be exploited. Nonetheless, the EU should be prepared for external uncertainties: China has demonstrated in the past that it is willing to sacrifice mutual economic benefits for the sake of power politics, and the coming Trump administration may be capable of the same.

Reassessing global leadership: a wake-up call for European unity

The EU has long been a proponent of multilateralism, and the chaos of Trump's first term has reminded us of the value of a stable and cooperative approach to global affairs. Europe has an opportunity to be the best in areas such as climate change, international trade and human rights - issues that the US has shown less interest in under Trump. By playing a greater role in shaping global norms and institutions, the EU can reaffirm its commitment to a cooperative and peaceful world order.

A quick and correct assessment of the real-time implications of Trump’s election will be of utmost importance: the EU will no longer be able to afford slow decision-making. Trump’s new term will undoubtedly make the US political system more authoritarian; as a noticeable side effect, the Trump government will drive accelerated decision-making in international politics. China and Russia are likely to eagerly pick up on the acceleration, as it helps them to deepen their rivalrous ambitions and increase pressure on other actors, especially on Europe. Ironically, the current occasional conservative to ultra-conservative voting majority in the European Parliament may have better technical tools for this than previous majorities, although this majority will often seek to advance the wrong policies. And not to forget that far-right forces in the EU, who often sympathize with Trump, have just received a huge confidence boost, and may be now able to use new levers to push for a gradual normalisation of far right-leaning policies in various fields and play out any individual alignment with the Trump administrations in the EU Institutions. But at the core, all depends on EU Member States’ foresight and will for unity: if they can find a clear joint stance on an independent geostrategy, the EU can use the current element of uncertainty to its advantage, and prioritize decisions that give it maximum agency over its own economic stability. The required reforms are quite a big ask, but they make sense. EU Member States, especially those with the most weight in Brussels, must proactively strive for greater unity in the bloc, and ensure that voters understand the scope of the situation. By promoting unity, embracing strategic autonomy and asserting its global influence, the EU can ensure it remains a strong and resilient player on the world stage, no matter what happens in Washington.