PHILIPPINES

After Trump 2024— What’s Next For Filipino Liberals?

By Jam Magdaleno
 

“Dutertismo is to the Philippines what Trumpism is to America,” observes political economist Calixto Chikiamco. Like its American counterpart, the Duterte movement emerged as a populist backlash against entrenched elites and the failures of traditional governance. For many, Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency was a visceral rejection of a system perceived to prioritize the few over the many. As the Duterte family eyes a potential political resurgence in 2025 and 2028, Filipino liberals confront a stark challenge: how to counteract the enduring appeal of populism in a fractured political landscape.

Populism thrives on discontent. Duterte’s 2016 campaign, steeped in anti-elite rhetoric, struck a deep chord with voters frustrated by corruption, inequality, and crime. His promise of decisive, often brutal, action resonated in a nation where 70% supported his controversial anti-drug campaign, despite widespread allegations of extrajudicial killings. Similarly, Donald Trump’s political ascent, culminating in his 2024 reelection bid, harnessed a similar anti-establishment sentiment, drawing support from disillusioned constituencies, including historically Democratic demographics.

For Filipino liberals, countering the populist tide requires more than policy proposals or appeals to rationality. If the recent struggles of America’s Democratic Party offer any lessons, it is that a reliance on technocratic expertise and elite-driven messaging often falls flat in a political environment fueled by emotion. In the Philippines, where economic inequality remains stark and institutional trust is fragile, a technocratic opposition risks alienating precisely those voters it most needs to win over.

The opposition’s first hurdle lies in addressing a profound disconnect between elite politics and the broader public. Duterte’s rhetoric resonated powerfully with rural and low-income voters who felt abandoned by globalization and the political establishment. His tough-talking, hands-on approach to crime and corruption appealed to those craving immediate solutions. By contrast, Leni Robredo’s 2022 presidential campaign, with its emphasis on policy substance and inclusive governance, struggled to break through. While urban professionals and the middle class admired her proposals, they failed to capture the imagination of the broader electorate.

This urban-rural divide mirrors similar dynamics in the United States, where Trump consolidated his base among voters alienated by the perceived cultural and economic dominance of coastal elites. In the Philippines, Duterte’s dominance among the D and E socio-economic classes—comprising the majority of the population—underscored the opposition’s inability to connect with these groups. To many, Duterte was not just a leader; he was an avatar of their frustrations and aspirations.

Duterte’s populism, like Trump’s, excelled in its exploitation of digital platforms. By sidestepping traditional media, Duterte’s team cultivated a direct connection with voters, saturating social media with emotionally charged content that reinforced his anti-establishment credentials. This digital strategy proved far more effective than forums, debates, or policy-heavy campaigns. “The opposition must meet the people where they are: on social media, not in salons of discourse,” warns veteran journalist Inday Espina-Varona.

If Filipino liberals hope to challenge the Duterte brand, they must adapt their playbook to a political battlefield defined by memes, videos, and viral posts. But simply mimicking populist tactics is not enough. The opposition needs to craft an emotionally resonant narrative—one that acknowledges the fears and frustrations fueling populism while offering a credible vision for the future.

The resurgence of Dutertismo underscores the urgency of addressing systemic voter dissatisfaction. Populist movements thrive in environments where inequality persists, institutions fail, and leaders appear out of touch. As Barack Obama once noted, rebuilding trust requires “recognizing the very real fears and frustrations of voters.”

The task ahead is twofold: to articulate policies that speak to the immediate concerns of ordinary Filipinos and to rebuild faith in democratic processes. This means embracing a politics of empathy as much as a politics of ideas. It requires engaging the marginalized and the disenchanted—not as abstract demographics but as partners in a shared vision for the future.

As historian Butch Abad notes, “The opposition has been too focused on what it stands against, rather than what it stands for.” By crafting a compelling, emotionally resonant platform rooted in the realities of Filipino life, liberals have an opportunity to offer a genuine alternative to populist rhetoric. Whether liberals succeed will determine whether the Philippines moves toward greater division or a renewed sense of common purpose.

Jam Magdaleno is Senior Communications Officer at the Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF) in Quezon City.