Mozambique

Elections amid insurgency and economic crisis

Mozambique will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on the 9th of October marking the end of President Filipe Nyusi's two-term tenure. Nyusi has been praised for upholding the constitution and not seeking a third term, unlike the trend on the continent. Elections are expected amid insurgence, rising political tensions, and widespread economic challenges. Poverty, fueled by systemic corruption, poor governance, and incompetence, has led to widespread discontent across various sectors of society. While the election date is fast approaching, the government continues to fight Islamic State-linked militants in the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado, where a major attack in 2021 forced ‘‘Total Energies’’ to halt its $20 billion liquefied natural gas project. This article highlights key issues of concern ahead of the 9th of October elections. These issues may impact the credibility and outcome of the polls.

Context and key issues around Mozambique elections

The ruling party FLELIMO has been in power since Mozambique's independence in 1975. Over the decades, FLELIMO has cemented its position and dominance as the ruling and governing party. The FLELIMO government has had a dismal record in upholding human rights. As a result, there are concerns that this year’s elections are held at a time when Mozambique has declined in democracy rankings. Stakeholders in Mozambique fear that the country is not ready to deliver a credible election. The Democracy Index shows that Mozambique measured 5.3 in 2006 and fell to 3.5 in 2023. Stakeholders are concerned that the recorded decrease stands at 34%, underlining the erosion of democratic norms.

Furthermore, the country ranked 105th in the World Press Freedom ranking, signaling poor media freedoms. The government has control over key media outlets, including the state-run newspaper Notícias. Consequently, there have been reports of violence and intimidation against journalists in the 2019 general elections and recently in the 2023 municipal elections. In addition, it has been argued that the upcoming 2024 elections have recorded unprecedented misinformation and hate speech in the history of Mozambique’s elections.
Apart from poor media freedoms, Mozambique comes in 145th out of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index, with FRELIMO accused of tapping into state resources for political gain. Stakeholders have indicated that corruption scandals of the past continue to affect citizens and are a pressing concern in these elections. They argue that Mozambique is still reeling from a ‘tuna bond’ scandal in which more than 1.5 billion of money lent to state-run firms for fishing fleets, funded in part by Credit Suisse, went missing. The scandal in their view caused a currency collapse and debt default.

The scandal also affected the country's ratings at the IMF. Combined with widespread poverty, this makes Mozambique one of the poorest nations in Africa, with its GDP per capita very low and around 60 percent of the population surviving in poverty. Therefore, these elections are seen by many as a war against poverty and corruption. Linked to corruption, there is also a growing discontentment among citizens on the quality of policing in the country. Stakeholders consulted have argued that the police are corrupt and brutal against citizens. A situation they argue is a result of partisan policing in favor of the ruling party. A concern that may impact the credibility of the elections. Unlike the previous elections, in 2024, there are new candidates, among opposing parties who pose a serious threat to the existence of FLELIMO as the next governing party. Four candidates are vying to succeed President Filipe Nyusi. Daniel Chapo, a 47-year-old from Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party, Ossufo Momade, 63, is the leader of Mozambique's main opposition Renamo party and former rebel movement.

Independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, 50, is seen as a rising star in Mozambican politics who is popular among the youth. Lutero Simango, 64, is the leader of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), the country's third-biggest party. Under the above circumstances, the Electoral Commission (CENI) has expressed preparedness ahead of the elections with 193,491 polling staff, (national 189,079 and 4,412 abroad for diaspora voting). Mozambican nationals residing in Germany, Portugal, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa will be awarded an opportunity to cast their votes. Polls will open from 7 am- 6 pm. A voter population of 17.169,239 is expected to cast their votes. Although preparations are at the advanced stage, and all logistical arrangements are in place, stakeholders in Mozambique particularly the Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) have raised concerns over inadequate stakeholder engagement by the Electoral Commission ahead of the elections which has created tensions in the country.

The virtual pre-election assessment mission by the African Centre for Governance (ACG PAM) observed dissatisfaction with the voter registration exercise in the country which took place during the rainy season. This exercise is criticised for low youth voter registration turnout. The efforts by the Electoral Commission to encourage the youth vote are seen as poor, unlike previous elections in 2019. Furthermore, there are fears about decreasing initiatives on civic and voter education, which is attributed to a passive civil society. More concerns were noted regarding the late release of state funding to the Electoral Commission which is seen as a deliberate attempt by the state to compromise its work. Other concerns include the late revision of the election legislation, the lack of trust among stakeholders, the alleged threats to the Electoral Commissioners by the aggrieved public, and the general insecurity in many parts of the country which are seen as a threat to the credibility of elections.
 

The pre-election assessment mission also observed that the Islamic State-linked militants who launched an insurgency in the northern gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado, killing thousands of civilians, destroying livelihoods, and internally displacing hundreds of thousands, continue to pose a threat to the credibility of the elections. The European Union (EU) and other election observer missions have indicated that they will not deploy observers in the areas experiencing insurgency. This means more than 1.5 million voters may not cast a vote or vote freely and these numbers will have little election observation.
The ACG mission further notes that Mozambique is a disaster-prone country, and is vulnerable to extreme climate shocks like droughts, cyclones, and floods. An El-Nino-induced drought has affected 1.8 million people, while Cyclone Freddy, one of the deadliest in two decades, killed over 1,000 people in the region.

Stakeholders in Mozambique informed the ACG mission that they are of the view that the FLELIMO government has not sufficiently put measures to mitigate the impact of drought and other climate-related challenges. Therefore, opening possibilities for political alternatives. The challenges and perceived failures of FLELIMO will see a highly competitive election unlike in the past. Finally, the ACG mission observes that the year 2024 is crucial for the people of Mozambique. It is a defining moment both for Mozambique and the peace and stability of the SADC region. Although FRELIMO is still the strongest political force, its stranglehold on power is declining due to growing discontent within the population, which is in pursuit of credible alternatives.

Stakeholders informed the ACG PAM that whoever wins these elections is expected to deal with insurgency and serious political and economic challenges. Stakeholders are of the view that Mozambique's future depends on visionary leadership that may reduce poverty, improve the living standards of the people, and correct the failings of FLELIMO. The next government's effectiveness will determine Mozambique's stability, politics, and economy