Survey

Not Braindead, but Necessary - Clear Majorities for NATO, Nuanced Perception of Security Threats

The Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom commissioned the polling institute dimap to conduct a representative survey that asked opinions on the current global security situation, threat perceptions and attitudes towards NATO in both the USA and Germany.

Attitudes towards NATO in times of historical upheavals

On July 9, the NATO summit begins in Washington. This year, the focus is on the 75th anniversary of the military alliance. On the table are issues including Russia's war against Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and collective approaches to dealing with the People's Republic of China. The alliance is now coming together for the first time with 32 member states. Against the backdrop of the super election year 2024, in particular the US elections in November, approval ratings for NATO and security policy attitudes in Germany and the USA are of particular interest.

NATO was founded for the common defense of Europe and the transatlantic theater. During the Cold War, collective defense against the threat posed by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact constituted NATO's raison d'être. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the Alliance shifted its focus to international crisis management and prevention missions, while territorial defense faded into the background. This situation has changed drastically with the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Shortly before this war, the role of NATO was increasingly called into question, most prominently by then-US President Donald Trump. But also on the European side, French President Emmanuel Macron had declared NATO “braindead” in 2019. Today, NATO is more important than ever.

At the same time, the United States — the leading power within NATO and indispensable guarantor of its security commitments — finds itself in the middle of an election year. Contentious foreign policy debates are marked by an increasingly  isolationist stance that opposes the continuation of international engagement as a world power.

Meanwhile, Germany’s defense budget has been slowly growing since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Prior to this, the military had been increasingly pushed out of the German concept of security. Politically, the principle of the “peace dividend” had been prevalent since the 1990s. The war of aggression against Ukraine drastically shifted this perception of security and political prioritization. A special off-budget fund for the Bundeswehr was introduced, and the Bundeswehr was restructured to ensure a refocus on national and alliance defense.

Against the background of these developments, the results of this survey are encouraging for those convinced of the need for a strong NATO and an effective common defense. NATO enjoys majority support on both sides of the Atlantic, even more so in Germany than in the US. In terms of threat perception, there are clear differences in the assessment of the threat from China, though not with regard to Russia. There are also variations in the assessment of NATO’s effectiveness, but these do not contradict the overall level of support. Within the study’s results, variation in opinion according to party preference on both sides of the Atlantic emerged as an interesting feature.

Survey Results

Growing threat perception — even more pronounced in Germany than in the USA

A very large majority of respondents in the USA and Germany considers the threat situation to be increasingly risky. The fact that German respondents (79%) feel this way to an even greater extent than American ones (69%) is certainly also due to Germany’s geographical proximity to the Ukrainian theater of war. The return of war to Europe, along with global tensions and conflicts, has led to a conjuncture that is perceived as dangerous by the populations on both sides of the Atlantic. In both countries, the threat perception is highest among the over-60s, although in the USA the disparity with the younger generation is significantly greater.

The threat posed by Russia is viewed similarly in both countries. Around 55% of US respondents consider Russia to be a “major military threat,” compared to 63% in Germany. In terms of party preference, there are only slight differences between the supporters of the two major parties in the USA, whereas in Germany it is noticeable that supporters of the AfD and the Linke rate the threat from Russia significantly lower than the average.

By contrast, the overall assessment of the threat posed by China differs significantly: in the USA, 57% of respondents see China as a major military threat, slightly more than do Russia. In Germany, the figure stands at a mere 31%. One explanation is certainly that China’s ambitions to become a global power under the leadership of President Xi have been discussed very critically by both parties in the USA for years. The USA also serves a unique role in safeguarding the security of Taiwan, setting it apart from its European partners. What is striking in this context is the breakdown by age group: In the US, almost twice as many of those aged over 60 see China as a major threat compared to the youngest age group (72% - 38%). In Germany, on the other hand, it is the youngest who see China as the greatest threat.

2. The United States and Germany: partners on security?

A majority of both American and German respondents see the two countries as partners in dealing with key security issues, in protecting European security, and in dealing with Russia and China.

When it comes to dealing with China, however, the majority of German respondents who see a good partnership is relatively narrow at 48%. As many as 43% of Germans have a negative view of the transatlantic relationship with China. Fears that Germany's foreign trade interests in China will be damaged could play a role here. Overall, the German-American relationship is predominantly seen as a partnership.

3. Attitudes towards NATO

NATO was rated favorably by 57% in the USA and 78% in Germany. The differences in this favorability assessment could be explained on the one hand by the proximity to the war in Ukraine, but also, on the other hand, by ongoing discussions in the USA calling for fairer burden-sharing and more investment from Europe in NATO. Nevertheless, NATO has a stable foundation of support in both countries.

In terms of party preferences, the positive assessment of NATO in the USA is significantly higher among Democrats (71%) than among Republicans (54%). In Germany, the proportion of those who have a very positive or somewhat positive opinion of NATO is over 50% across all parties, and 90% or higher among the Ampel and CDU parties.

Some differences emerge when it comes to the question of whether NATO has become outdated since the end of the Cold War. 40% of respondents in the USA believe that NATO is no longer up to date, while only 30% in Germany think so.

The idea that the USA should only extend its guarantee of protection to countries that have fulfilled their financial commitment to NATO is supported by a clear majority in the USA, as well as by 49% of respondents in Germany. When Donald Trump originally made this demand, it was met with a great deal of criticism in the USA and internationally because it was perceived as casting doubt onto NATO’s obligation to render mutual military assistance in case of conflict.

4. Does NATO secure peace?

A majority in both countries believe that NATO's deterrent power secures peace and deters potential aggressors from attacking: more clearly so in Germany (65%) than in the USA (55%). This means that NATO is supported by distinct majorities in its central function as a peacekeeping alliance.

5. Reintroducing the draft?

On this issue, the two countries differ fundamentally due to widely divergent landscapes of political discourse. In the USA, where the reintroduction of compulsory military service has not been a subject of public debate for decades, 62% oppose a draft. In contrast, the prospect is supported by 59% in Germany, with the German Minister of Defense having voiced support for this demand. A look at the distinct age groups is revealing, however, with a majority of 54% of the 18–29 cohort — i.e., those potentially affected by a draft — opposing its reintroduction.

6. Funding of international military Engagement

When asked about spending on international military operations, a plurality in Germany (37%) believes that too little is being spent. In the USA, a plurality (also 37%) believes that too much is being spent. This difference is no doubt attributable to the fact that the USA, as a global power, has disproportionately higher military expenditures. In both countries, 27% think that spending on international missions is currently just right. There is no majority in either country for withdrawing from international engagement, which is particularly remarkable in view of the isolationist trends in the American presidential campaign.

Conclusion: the future of NATO has a broad base of support

In times of growing threats, NATO is experiencing a transatlantic renaissance. NATO is supported by broad majorities in the USA and Germany. Its peacekeeping function in deterring aggressors is recognized. Nevertheless, relatively many people consider NATO to be outdated. The wishes for reform underlying this view were not queried in this survey.   

The transatlantic partnership is predominantly rated as favorable on matters of security policy. Yet there are clear differences in the assessment of China; respondents in the USA see China as a much greater threat than those surveyed in Germany. This also reflects the political debates about China, which in the US are conducted under the banner of systemic antagonism and great power competition.

Overall, the results have shown that even after 75 years, NATO is still regarded as having a central role in safeguarding peace and that popular majorities on both sides of the Atlantic continue to place their confidence in it.

This survey first appeared in the FAZ on July 8, 2024.